Tropical Storm LANE

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TROPICAL STORM LANE DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP132006
800 AM PDT FRI SEP 15 2006
 
LANE IS GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING. THERE IS A CENTRAL
DENSE OVERCAST WITH TOPS COLDER THAN -80C AND A LARGE OUTER BAND
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN SEMICIRCLE.  AN AMSU OVERPASS AT 1226 UTC
SUGGESTS THAT A SMALL EYE MAY BE PRESENT UNDER THE CDO.  SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 65 KT FROM TAFB...55 KT FROM SAB...AND 35
KT FROM AFWA.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 60 KT...AND
THERE IS A CHANCE LANE IS ALREADY A HURRICANE.  THE CIRRUS OUTFLOW
IS CURRENTLY GOOD TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH...AND FAIR TO THE EAST AND
WEST.  AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED
TO INVESTIGATE LANE AROUND 18Z.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 325/9...A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT AND SLOWER THAN
EARLIER.  LANE IS SOUTHWEST OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER MEXICO AND IS
MOVING TOWARD A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING EASTWARD THROUGH
THE WESTERN UNITED STATES.  LARGE-SCALE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE
U. S. TROUGH WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD IN THE NEXT 72 HR AND ALLOW THE
MEXICAN RIDGE TO BUILD WESTWARD.  THIS WOULD LEAVE LANE IN AN AREA
OF LIGHT FLOW NEAR THE RIDGE AXIS.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS CLUSTERED
AROUND A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
FOR 36-48 HR...THEN STARTS TO DIVERGE BETWEEN A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST AND CONTINUED MOTION TOWARD THE NORTHWEST. THE NEW
FORECAST TRACK WILL SLOW THE FORWARD SPEED DOWN TO 3 KT AFTER 48 HR
IN RESPONSE TO THE GUIDANCE SPREAD AND THE BUILDING RIDGE.  THE
TRACK IS SLIGHTLY EAST OF AND SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS TRACK...
BRINGING THE CENTER TO THE MAINLAND COAST OF MEXICO BY 72 HR.
 
LANE IS CURRENTLY IN A LIGHT SHEAR ENVIRONMENT OVER 30C SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING AS LONG
AS THE CIRCULATION IS NOT TOO TANGLES UP WITH LAND.  INDEED...THE
RAPID INTENSIFICATION INDEX OF THE SHIPS MODEL HAS A 43 PRESENT
CHANCE OF RAPID STRENGTHENING IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  THE NEW
FORECAST TRACK BRINGS LANE UP THE CENTER OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA
THROUGH 72 HR...SO THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR MORE
STRENGTHENING THROUGH 48 HR AND LESS WEAKENING THEREAFTER THAN THE
PREVIOUS PACKAGE.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS
AND GFDL MODELS.  THERE IS TWO SOURCES OF UNCERTAINTY IN THIS
FORECAST.  THE FIRST IS THAT LANE HAS A SMALL CENTRAL CORE...AND
COULD BOTH STRENGTHEN AND WEAKEN FASTER THEN EXPECTED.  THE SECOND
IS THE POSSIBILITY OF LAND INTERACTION...AS THE INTENSITY COULD
WELL BE LESS THAN FORECAST IF LANE VEERS OFF THE FORECAST TRACK.

IF LANE FOLLOWS THE FORECAST TRACK...HURRICANE CONDITIONS SHOULD
REMAIN OFFSHORE OF THE MEXICAN COAST NEAR CABO CORRIENTES. 
HOWEVER...A DEVIATION TO THE RIGHT OF THE TRACK COULD BRING
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ONSHORE.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      15/1500Z 19.7N 106.2W    60 KT
 12HR VT     16/0000Z 20.9N 107.0W    70 KT
 24HR VT     16/1200Z 22.3N 108.0W    80 KT
 36HR VT     17/0000Z 23.4N 108.8W    85 KT
 48HR VT     17/1200Z 24.3N 109.0W    85 KT
 72HR VT     18/1200Z 25.5N 109.0W    85 KT...INLAND
 96HR VT     19/1200Z 26.5N 109.0W    45 KT...INLAND
120HR VT     20/1200Z 28.0N 108.5W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
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