Tropical Storm LANE

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TROPICAL STORM LANE DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP132006
200 AM PDT FRI SEP 15 2006
 
LANE CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF GRADUAL STRENGTHENING WITH A BAND OF
VERY STRONG CONVECTION NOW WRAPPING TWO-THIRDS OF THE WAY AROUND
THE ESTIMATED CENTER.  ADDITIONALLY...TWO EARLIER MICROWAVE PASSES
INDICATE THE EARLY STAGES OF A BANDING EYE FEATURE. DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE CURRENTLY 45 KT AND 55 KT FROM SAB AND TAFB
RESPECTIVELY.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 55 KT IS BASED ON THE
HIGHER OF THESE TWO ESTIMATES GIVEN THE APPARENT BANDING EYE IN
MICROWAVE IMAGERY. 
 
LOCATING THE CENTER OF LANE WITH CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
CONTINUES TO BE DIFFICULT TO SAY THE LEAST.  HOWEVER...THE LAST TWO
MICROWAVE PASSES YIELDS AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 310/12.  LANE
IS BEING STEERED AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE
ANCHORED OVER MEXICO.  AS A RESULT...A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO TAKING LANE
INTO THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA.  THEREAFTER...LANE IS EXPECTED TO TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH AND THEN NORTHEAST AS IT COMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF A LARGE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. 
WHILE MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON THIS LARGE-SCALE
PATTERN...THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN HOW MUCH LAND
INTERACTION WILL EVENTUALLY TAKE PLACE.  IF LANE INTERACTS WITH
LAND MORE THAN ANTICIPATED...A WEAKER CYCLONE WOULD LIKELY NOT TURN
NORTHEASTWARD.  CONVERSELY...IF LANE REMAINS VERTICALLY
COHERENT...IT WOULD TEND TO BE STEERED NORTHEASTWARD BY THE
DEEP-LAYER FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH.  SINCE THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED EASTWARD AND NOW SHOWS A TRACK
INTO THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...A SUBTLE TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IS
INTRODUCED AT DAY 5 TAKING THE CYCLONE INLAND OVER MAINLAND MEXICO.   
 
THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS RIDDLED WITH UNCERTAINTY. IN THE
SHORT-TERM...LANE IS EXPECTED TO PARALLEL THE PACIFIC COAST OF
MEXICO OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. WHILE THE CENTER IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN OFFSHORE...SUCH A CLOSE APPROACH TO LAND MAKES ASSESSING
POSSIBLE LAND INTERACTIONS DIFFICULT. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ASSUMES
LANE WILL STAY FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE TO ALLOW IT TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF
AN OTHERWISE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR STRENGTHENING.
ACCORDINGLY... THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS LANE BECOMING A
HURRICANE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. BEYOND 36 HOURS...LANE IS
EXPECTED TO BE THREADING THE NEEDLE BETWEEN THE BAJA PENINSULA AND
MAINLAND MEXICO. SINCE A TRACK SLIGHTLY EAST OR WEST OF THE CURRENT
FORECAST WOULD CAUSE LAND INTERACTION...SLOW WEAKENING IS SHOWN
UNTIL THE CYCLONE MOVES INLAND OVER MAINLAND MEXICO BY DAY 4...AT
WHICH TIME RAPID WEAKENING IS EXPECTED. FINALLY...IT SHOULD BE
NOTED THAT LANE IS A RELATIVELY SMALL SYSTEM...AND RAPID INTENSITY
FLUCTUATIONS...BOTH UP AND DOWN...ARE POSSIBLE. 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      15/0900Z 19.1N 106.0W    55 KT
 12HR VT     15/1800Z 20.4N 106.8W    65 KT
 24HR VT     16/0600Z 21.9N 107.8W    75 KT
 36HR VT     16/1800Z 23.2N 108.9W    80 KT
 48HR VT     17/0600Z 24.5N 109.4W    75 KT
 72HR VT     18/0600Z 25.5N 109.5W    70 KT
 96HR VT     19/0600Z 27.0N 109.5W    55 KT...INLAND
120HR VT     20/0600Z 28.0N 109.0W    40 KT...INLAND
 
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FORECASTER RHOME/KNABB
 
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