ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION KRISTY DISCUSSION NUMBER 25 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122006 800 PM PDT MON SEP 04 2006 KRISTY CONTINUES TO PRODUCE INTERMITTENT DEEP CONVECTION WITH THE LATEST BURST FIRING UP OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE CIRCULATION JUST BEFORE 0000 UTC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 30 KT...BASED ON EARLIER QUIKSCAT DATA AND A MORE RECENT DVORAK CLASSIFICATION OF 30 KT FROM TAFB. MODERATE EASTERLY SHEAR HAS KEPT CONVECTION FROM WRAPPING AROUND THE CENTER. BOTH THE SHIPS AND GFDL INTENSITY GUIDANCE FORECAST RESTRENGTHENING TO A TROPICAL STORM...BUT SEEING NO MAJOR CHANGE TO THE CURRENT ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE GRADUAL WEAKENING AND DEGENERATION TO A REMNANT LOW IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...IF THE INTERMITTENT BURSTS OF CONVECTION CONTINUE...KRISTY COULD REMAIN A TROPICAL CYCLONE A LITTLE LONGER THAN INDICATED. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 235/4. TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS VIRTUALLY UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THE MODELS PREDICT AN INCREASINGLY FASTER WESTWARD MOTION SOUTH OF A BUILDING MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE. THIS FASTER MOTION SEEMS UNLIKELY UNLESS KRISTY CAN REGENERATE INTO A DEEPER SYSTEM. SINCE THE OFFICIAL FORECAST PRESUMES THAT KRISTY WILL NOT...IT REMAINS MUCH SLOWER THAN ALMOST ALL OF THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 05/0300Z 16.2N 119.8W 30 KT 12HR VT 05/1200Z 16.1N 120.6W 30 KT 24HR VT 06/0000Z 16.1N 121.8W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 36HR VT 06/1200Z 16.2N 123.1W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 07/0000Z 16.4N 124.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 08/0000Z 17.0N 127.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 09/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BROWN/STEWART NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:44 UTC