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Tropical Depression KRISTY


ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION KRISTY DISCUSSION NUMBER  25
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP122006
800 PM PDT MON SEP 04 2006
 
KRISTY CONTINUES TO PRODUCE INTERMITTENT DEEP CONVECTION WITH THE
LATEST BURST FIRING UP OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE
CIRCULATION JUST BEFORE 0000 UTC.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL
REMAIN 30 KT...BASED ON EARLIER QUIKSCAT DATA AND A MORE RECENT
DVORAK CLASSIFICATION OF 30 KT FROM TAFB.  

MODERATE EASTERLY SHEAR HAS KEPT CONVECTION FROM WRAPPING AROUND
THE CENTER.  BOTH THE SHIPS AND GFDL INTENSITY GUIDANCE FORECAST
RESTRENGTHENING TO A TROPICAL STORM...BUT SEEING NO MAJOR CHANGE 
TO THE CURRENT ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST 
WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE GRADUAL WEAKENING AND DEGENERATION TO A
REMNANT LOW IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  HOWEVER...IF THE INTERMITTENT
BURSTS OF CONVECTION CONTINUE...KRISTY COULD REMAIN A TROPICAL
CYCLONE A LITTLE LONGER THAN INDICATED.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 235/4.  TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS
VIRTUALLY UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  THE MODELS PREDICT
AN INCREASINGLY FASTER WESTWARD MOTION SOUTH OF A BUILDING MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE.  THIS FASTER MOTION SEEMS UNLIKELY UNLESS KRISTY
CAN REGENERATE INTO A DEEPER SYSTEM.  SINCE THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
PRESUMES THAT KRISTY WILL NOT...IT REMAINS MUCH SLOWER THAN ALMOST
ALL OF THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE. 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      05/0300Z 16.2N 119.8W    30 KT
 12HR VT     05/1200Z 16.1N 120.6W    30 KT
 24HR VT     06/0000Z 16.1N 121.8W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 36HR VT     06/1200Z 16.2N 123.1W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     07/0000Z 16.4N 124.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     08/0000Z 17.0N 127.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     09/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN/STEWART
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:44 UTC