Tropical Storm KRISTY

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TROPICAL STORM KRISTY DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP122006
800 AM PDT FRI SEP 01 2006
 
A 0959 UTC AMSR-E MICROWAVE PASS ESTIMATED THE CENTER OF KRISTY A
BIT TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY POSITION. 
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SMALL BURST OF CONVECTION TO THE
SOUTH OF THE CENTER...BUT THIS MAY BE SHORT-LIVED AS KRISTY IS IN A
MODERATE TO STRONG DRY ENVIRONMENT.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN
LOWERED TO 50 KT...AND IS A BLEND OF THE DATA T-NUMBERS AND CI
NUMBERS FROM ALL THREE AGENCIES.  KRISTY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
ITS WEAKENING TREND AND ENCOUNTER WATERS BELOW 26 DEGREES CELSIUS
IN THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS.  THESE COOLER WATERS COMBINED WITH SOME
VERTICAL SHEAR FROM JOHN AND A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD
WEAKEN KRISTY TO A REMNANT LOW IN 72 HOURS OR SO. 
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 310/5.  KRISTY IS IN A WEAK STEERING
ENVIRONMENT BETWEEN A TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST AND A RIDGE TO THE
NORTHEAST.  THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME
INITIALIZING KRISTY...PROBABLY DUE TO THE PROXIMITY AND THE LARGER
CIRCULATION OF JOHN.  THE UKMET...GFS...GFD...AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE
TAKE JOHN SLOWLY TO THE NORTHWEST AND TURN THE CYCLONE TO THE
SOUTHWEST AND DISSIPATE IT IN RESPONSE TO A STRENGTHENING RIDGE TO
THE NORTH.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS REASONING...BUT
SLOWER...AND IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      01/1500Z 19.3N 118.3W    50 KT
 12HR VT     02/0000Z 19.9N 118.9W    40 KT
 24HR VT     02/1200Z 20.2N 119.6W    30 KT
 36HR VT     03/0000Z 20.2N 120.3W    25 KT
 48HR VT     03/1200Z 20.0N 120.7W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 72HR VT     04/1200Z 19.5N 121.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     05/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI/AVILA
 
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