Hurricane KRISTY

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HURRICANE KRISTY DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP122006
800 PM PDT THU AUG 31 2006
 
TWO AFTERNOON MICROWAVE PASSES...ONE FROM 1757Z AND THE OTHER FROM
2057Z...REVEALS A PARTIAL EYEWALL FEATURE. HOWEVER...AS WAS THE
CASE EARLIER IN THE DAY...CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS NO
EVIDENCE OF AN APPARENT EYE.  DESPITE THE DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS OF
T4.0 FROM BOTH TAFB/SAB...KRISTYS OVERALL APPEARANCE REMAINS RATHER
AMORPHOUS.  DESPITE ITS RAGGED PRESENTATION...KRISTY IS RETAINED
AS A 65 KT HURRICANE IN THIS ADVISORY PACKAGE.  

RECENT SATELLITE FIXES AND THE EARLIER MICROWAVE DATA SUGGEST THAT 
KRISTY MAY HAVE BEEN TOO FAR SOUTH...AND THUS THE TRACK IS ADJUSTED
SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. A LONGER-TERM EXAMINATION
OF THE RECENT FIXES SUGGESTS A MOTION OF 315/7.  MODEL GUIDANCE
KEEPS KRISTY IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT THE NEXT FEW DAYS
UNDERNEATH A WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGE ORIENTED NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST
ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES THROUGH THE SUBTROPICAL
EASTERN PACIFIC...LEADING SOME MODELS TO EVEN SUGGEST A MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY COURSE.  OTHERS...LIKE THE NOGAPS AND GFDN...FAVOR A
FUJIWARA INTERACTION...WHEREBY KRISTY IS EVENTUALLY ABSORBED BY
HURRICANE JOHN.  HOWEVER...THIS SOLUTION IS DISCOUNTED BECAUSE THE
MOTION FROM THESE MODELS IS INCORRECT AT THE INITIAL TIME.  THUS
THE FORECAST TRACK IS A SLOW MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST AND THEN
SOUTHWEST AT DAYS FOUR AND FIVE...GIVEN THESE TWO DISTINCT
POSSIBILITIES.

AVAILABLE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT KRISTY HAS LIKELY PEAKED. 
INCREASING EASTERLY WIND SHEAR RELATED TO THE OUTFLOW FROM
HURRICANE JOHN...NOT TO MENTION COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND
MORE STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER AIR...ARE EXPECTED TO INDUCE A GENERAL
WEAKENING OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS...WHICH SHOULD BECOME MORE RAPID
THEREAFTER. 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      01/0300Z 19.3N 117.8W    65 KT
 12HR VT     01/1200Z 19.8N 118.6W    60 KT
 24HR VT     02/0000Z 20.4N 119.5W    50 KT
 36HR VT     02/1200Z 20.6N 120.2W    40 KT
 48HR VT     03/0000Z 20.6N 120.5W    35 KT
 72HR VT     04/0000Z 20.5N 121.0W    30 KT
 96HR VT     05/0000Z 20.0N 121.5W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
120HR VT     06/0000Z 19.5N 122.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN/KIMBERLAIN/LANDSEA
 
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