Tropical Storm KRISTY

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TROPICAL STORM KRISTY DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP122006
200 PM PDT WED AUG 30 2006

ALTHOUGH IR IMAGES SHOW THAT THE CONVECTIVE CLOUD TOPS HAD WARMED
OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME MORE
ORGANIZED ON TODAY'S VISIBLE SATELLITE PICTURES AND A NEW BURST OF
COLD-TOPPED CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING NEAR THE CENTER.  THERE IS A
WELL-DEFINED CURVED BAND WRAPPING NEARLY ALL THE WAY AROUND THE
SYSTEM CENTER...WITH EVEN A SUGGESTION OF AN INTERMITTENT EYE-LIKE
FEATURE.  DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS YIELD A CURRENT INTENSITY OF 55
KT...WHICH IS USED...MAYBE CONSERVATIVELY...FOR THE ADVISORY WIND
SPEED.  UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS INCREASING AND KRISTY SHOULD REMAIN
OVER FAIRLY WARM WATERS FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS.  ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO...IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST FSU SUPERENSEMBLE OUTPUT.  LATER
ON...INCREASING SHEAR AND COOLING WATER TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO
INDUCE A WEAKENING TREND.

THE MOTION CONTINUES AT AROUND 305/5.  A MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST AND NORTH OF THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD PROVIDE A GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
STEERING FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  IN THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD...MUCH OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE SHOWS A TURN TOWARD THE
SOUTHWEST...PERHAPS IN RESPONSE TO BROAD-SCALE CYCLONIC FLOW TO THE
EAST OF KRISTY.  SINCE THIS MAY NOT BE ENTIRELY REALISTIC...THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST ONLY BENDS THE TRACK SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT AT
HOURS 96-120. 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      30/2100Z 17.0N 115.6W    55 KT
 12HR VT     31/0600Z 17.5N 116.4W    60 KT
 24HR VT     31/1800Z 18.2N 117.7W    65 KT
 36HR VT     01/0600Z 18.9N 119.0W    70 KT
 48HR VT     01/1800Z 19.5N 120.5W    65 KT
 72HR VT     02/1800Z 20.0N 123.0W    55 KT
 96HR VT     03/1800Z 19.5N 125.0W    45 KT
120HR VT     04/1800Z 19.0N 127.0W    35 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
 
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