ZCZC MIAPWSEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE JOHN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 16 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112006 0900 UTC FRI SEP 01 2006 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JOHN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 100 KTS...115 MPH...185 KM/HR. CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ENSENADA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) P ABREOJOS 34 X 3( 3) 21(24) 15(39) 9(48) X(48) 1(49) P ABREOJOS 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) 2(12) X(12) 1(13) P ABREOJOS 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 97 2(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) CABO SAN LUCAS 50 75 9(84) X(84) X(84) 1(85) X(85) X(85) CABO SAN LUCAS 64 48 13(61) X(61) X(61) X(61) X(61) X(61) SAN JOSE CABO 34 95 2(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) SAN JOSE CABO 50 66 10(76) X(76) X(76) X(76) X(76) X(76) SAN JOSE CABO 64 32 11(43) 1(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) LA PAZ 34 51 34(85) 3(88) 1(89) X(89) X(89) X(89) LA PAZ 50 5 34(39) 5(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) LA PAZ 64 1 11(12) 3(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) LORETO 34 1 13(14) 23(37) 5(42) 3(45) X(45) 1(46) LORETO 50 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 2( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) LORETO 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) HERMOSILLO 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) BAHIA KINO 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) 3(10) 1(11) X(11) GUAYMAS 34 X 2( 2) 4( 6) 4(10) 2(12) X(12) X(12) HUATABAMPO 34 1 4( 5) 5(10) 2(12) 2(14) X(14) X(14) LOS MOCHIS 34 1 7( 8) 5(13) 2(15) 1(16) X(16) X(16) CULICAN 34 7 14(21) 4(25) 1(26) 1(27) X(27) 1(28) CULICAN 50 1 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MAZATLAN 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HR POSITIONS KT 12 228N 1101W 34 97 1(98) 1(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 12 228N 1101W 50 72 10(82) 1(83) X(83) X(83) X(83) X(83) 12 228N 1101W 64 45 15(60) 1(61) X(61) X(61) X(61) X(61) 24 239N 1114W 34 29 56(85) 6(91) 1(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) 24 239N 1114W 50 3 45(48) 8(56) 2(58) X(58) X(58) X(58) 24 239N 1114W 64 1 28(29) 8(37) 2(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) 36 248N 1127W 34 2 36(38) 29(67) 6(73) 3(76) 1(77) X(77) 36 248N 1127W 50 X 10(10) 26(36) 7(43) 2(45) X(45) X(45) 36 248N 1127W 64 X 4( 4) 16(20) 5(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) 48 254N 1140W 34 1 8( 9) 33(42) 14(56) 7(63) X(63) 1(64) 48 254N 1140W 50 X 1( 1) 14(15) 11(26) 5(31) X(31) X(31) 48 254N 1140W 64 X X( X) 6( 6) 6(12) 2(14) X(14) X(14) 72 263N 1165W 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 12(18) 17(35) 4(39) X(39) 72 263N 1165W 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) 2(12) X(12) 72 263N 1165W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) 96 268N 1190W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) 5(17) 1(18) 96 268N 1190W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 96 268N 1190W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 120 270N 1220W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7) 120 270N 1220W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 120 270N 1220W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - - FCST MAX WIND 105 100 90 75 60 45 35 FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) $$ FORECASTER BROWN/KNABB NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:43 UTC