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Hurricane JOHN


ZCZC MIAPWSEP1 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
HURRICANE JOHN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  16                  
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP112006               
0900 UTC FRI SEP 01 2006                                            
                                                                    
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JOHN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.7
NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 100  
KTS...115 MPH...185 KM/HR.                                          
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT  7 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
ENSENADA       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)
 
P ABREOJOS     34  X   3( 3)  21(24)  15(39)   9(48)   X(48)   1(49)
P ABREOJOS     50  X   X( X)   3( 3)   7(10)   2(12)   X(12)   1(13)
P ABREOJOS     64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
CABO SAN LUCAS 34 97   2(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
CABO SAN LUCAS 50 75   9(84)   X(84)   X(84)   1(85)   X(85)   X(85)
CABO SAN LUCAS 64 48  13(61)   X(61)   X(61)   X(61)   X(61)   X(61)
 
SAN JOSE CABO  34 95   2(97)   X(97)   X(97)   X(97)   X(97)   X(97)
SAN JOSE CABO  50 66  10(76)   X(76)   X(76)   X(76)   X(76)   X(76)
SAN JOSE CABO  64 32  11(43)   1(44)   X(44)   X(44)   X(44)   X(44)
 
LA PAZ         34 51  34(85)   3(88)   1(89)   X(89)   X(89)   X(89)
LA PAZ         50  5  34(39)   5(44)   X(44)   X(44)   X(44)   X(44)
LA PAZ         64  1  11(12)   3(15)   X(15)   X(15)   X(15)   X(15)
 
LORETO         34  1  13(14)  23(37)   5(42)   3(45)   X(45)   1(46)
LORETO         50  X   1( 1)   5( 6)   2( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
LORETO         64  X   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
HERMOSILLO     34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   1( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)
 
BAHIA KINO     34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   4( 7)   3(10)   1(11)   X(11)
 
GUAYMAS        34  X   2( 2)   4( 6)   4(10)   2(12)   X(12)   X(12)
 
HUATABAMPO     34  1   4( 5)   5(10)   2(12)   2(14)   X(14)   X(14)
 
LOS MOCHIS     34  1   7( 8)   5(13)   2(15)   1(16)   X(16)   X(16)
 
CULICAN        34  7  14(21)   4(25)   1(26)   1(27)   X(27)   1(28)
CULICAN        50  1   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
MAZATLAN       34  1   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 228N 1101W 34 97   1(98)   1(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 12 228N 1101W 50 72  10(82)   1(83)   X(83)   X(83)   X(83)   X(83)
 12 228N 1101W 64 45  15(60)   1(61)   X(61)   X(61)   X(61)   X(61)
 
 24 239N 1114W 34 29  56(85)   6(91)   1(92)   X(92)   X(92)   X(92)
 24 239N 1114W 50  3  45(48)   8(56)   2(58)   X(58)   X(58)   X(58)
 24 239N 1114W 64  1  28(29)   8(37)   2(39)   X(39)   X(39)   X(39)
 
 36 248N 1127W 34  2  36(38)  29(67)   6(73)   3(76)   1(77)   X(77)
 36 248N 1127W 50  X  10(10)  26(36)   7(43)   2(45)   X(45)   X(45)
 36 248N 1127W 64  X   4( 4)  16(20)   5(25)   X(25)   X(25)   X(25)
 
 48 254N 1140W 34  1   8( 9)  33(42)  14(56)   7(63)   X(63)   1(64)
 48 254N 1140W 50  X   1( 1)  14(15)  11(26)   5(31)   X(31)   X(31)
 48 254N 1140W 64  X   X( X)   6( 6)   6(12)   2(14)   X(14)   X(14)
 
 
 72 263N 1165W 34  X   1( 1)   5( 6)  12(18)  17(35)   4(39)   X(39)
 72 263N 1165W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   7(10)   2(12)   X(12)
 72 263N 1165W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)
 
 
 96 268N 1190W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  10(12)   5(17)   1(18)
 96 268N 1190W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)
 96 268N 1190W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 
120 270N 1220W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)   1( 7)
120 270N 1220W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)
120 270N 1220W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND    105    100      90      75      60      45      35
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BROWN/KNABB                                                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
NNNN                                                                


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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:43 UTC