ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM ILEANA DISCUSSION NUMBER 20 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102006 200 AM PDT SAT AUG 26 2006 ONLY A SMALL AREA OF CONVECTION REMAINS NEAR THE CENTER OF ILEANA TONIGHT. IN ADDITION A QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWED NO WINDS HIGHER THAN 50 KT IN THE CIRCULATION... WHICH MIGHT BE REASONABLE GIVEN A LACK OF DEEP CONVECTION TO ATTENUATE THE MICROWAVE SIGNAL. USING THE QUIKSCAT ESTIMATE AND A BLEND OF THE DVORAK ESIMATES... THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE REDUCED TO 55 KT. A CONTINUED SPINDOWN OF THE VORTEX IS EXPECTED DUE TO SUB 25C SSTS AND THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS/GFDL MODELS. REMNANT LOW STATUS SHOULD OCCUR IN A COUPLE DAYS... IF NOT SOONER... AS THE CYCLONE PASSES OVER EVEN COOLER WATER. THE MUCH-ANTICIPATED LEFTWARD TURN APPEARS BE OCCURRING... WITH A MOTION OF ABOUT 295/6. A MOTION MORE TO THE WEST IS FORECAST IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE TROPICAL CYCLONE BECOMES WEAKER AND IS STEERED PREDOMINATELY BY LOW-LEVEL EASTERLIES. THE LOW SHOULD CONTINUE IN A WESTWARD FASHION FOR A FEW DAYS BEFORE DISSIPATION AROUND THE 72-96 HOUR TIME FRAME. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 26/0900Z 22.5N 118.6W 55 KT 12HR VT 26/1800Z 22.8N 119.5W 50 KT 24HR VT 27/0600Z 23.1N 120.8W 40 KT 36HR VT 27/1800Z 23.3N 122.0W 30 KT 48HR VT 28/0600Z 23.4N 123.2W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 29/0600Z 23.5N 126.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 30/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:43 UTC