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Tropical Storm ILEANA


ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM ILEANA DISCUSSION NUMBER  20
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP102006
200 AM PDT SAT AUG 26 2006

ONLY A SMALL AREA OF CONVECTION REMAINS NEAR THE CENTER OF ILEANA
TONIGHT. IN ADDITION A QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWED NO WINDS HIGHER THAN 50
KT IN THE CIRCULATION... WHICH MIGHT BE REASONABLE GIVEN A LACK OF
DEEP CONVECTION TO ATTENUATE THE MICROWAVE SIGNAL. USING THE
QUIKSCAT ESTIMATE AND A BLEND OF THE DVORAK ESIMATES... THE INITIAL
INTENSITY WILL BE REDUCED TO 55 KT. A CONTINUED SPINDOWN OF THE
VORTEX IS EXPECTED DUE TO SUB 25C SSTS AND THE INTENSITY FORECAST
IS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS/GFDL MODELS. REMNANT LOW STATUS SHOULD
OCCUR IN A COUPLE DAYS... IF NOT SOONER... AS THE CYCLONE PASSES
OVER EVEN COOLER WATER. 

THE MUCH-ANTICIPATED LEFTWARD TURN APPEARS BE OCCURRING... WITH A
MOTION OF ABOUT 295/6. A MOTION MORE TO THE WEST IS FORECAST IN THE
NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE TROPICAL CYCLONE BECOMES WEAKER AND IS
STEERED PREDOMINATELY BY LOW-LEVEL EASTERLIES. THE LOW SHOULD
CONTINUE IN A WESTWARD FASHION FOR A FEW DAYS BEFORE DISSIPATION
AROUND THE 72-96 HOUR TIME FRAME. 
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      26/0900Z 22.5N 118.6W    55 KT
 12HR VT     26/1800Z 22.8N 119.5W    50 KT
 24HR VT     27/0600Z 23.1N 120.8W    40 KT
 36HR VT     27/1800Z 23.3N 122.0W    30 KT
 48HR VT     28/0600Z 23.4N 123.2W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     29/0600Z 23.5N 126.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     30/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:43 UTC