Hurricane ILEANA

ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE ILEANA DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP102006
200 AM PDT THU AUG 24 2006
 
HURRICANE ILEANA HAS BEGUN TO WEAKEN...CURRENT INTENSITY IS NOW 95
KT.  ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE EYE HAS EXPANDED AND
CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED.  0312Z 85 GHZ SSM/I MICROWAVE
IMAGERY INDICATES THE FORMATION OF AN OUTER EYEWALL AS PART OF AN
POSSIBLE EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE.  HOWEVER, WE DO NOT EXPECT
ELENA TO RE-INTENSIFY AS IT IS MOVING OVER COOLER WATER...AND ALL
INTENSITY AND DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE SUPPORTS MORE RAPID
WEAKENING THAN IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

ILEANA'S FORWARD SPEED HAS DECREASED...INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED
AT 300/9.  OUR TRACK FORECAST IS CONSISTENT, BUT SLIGHTLY MORE
NORTH AND SLOWER THAN IN THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE IN DEFERENCE TO A
CONSENSUS OF THE GFDL, UKMO, NOGAPS AND GFS MODELS AND THE FLORIDA
STATE SUPERENSEMBLE.  

THE WIND RADII REMAIN THE SAME GIVEN THE LACK OF NEW OBSERVATIONS
AND THE FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND CLIMATOLOGY.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      24/0900Z 19.9N 114.2W    95 KT
 12HR VT     24/1800Z 20.5N 115.3W    90 KT
 24HR VT     25/0600Z 21.3N 116.6W    85 KT
 36HR VT     25/1800Z 21.8N 117.5W    65 KT
 48HR VT     26/0600Z 22.2N 118.6W    55 KT
 72HR VT     27/0600Z 22.5N 120.1W    40 KT
 96HR VT     28/0600Z 22.5N 121.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     29/0600Z 22.5N 123.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER FIORINO/AVILA
 
NNNN