ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102006 1100 AM PDT MON AUG 21 2006 SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE A FEW HUNDRED MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO HAS BECOME BETTER-ORGANIZED. CURVED BANDING FEATURES AROUND THE CENTER HAVE BECOME BETTER-DEFINED AND DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN INCREASING. A SPECIAL DVORAK CLASSIFICATION AT 1645 UTC FROM TAFB WAS 2.0... 30 KT AND SUPPORTS INITIATING ADVISORIES. STEADY INTENSIFICATION APPEARS LIKELY WITH LITTLE FORECAST SHEAR AND WARM WATERS ABOVE 29C. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE SHIPS MODEL WHICH SEEMS MORE REASONABLE THAN THE GFDL WHICH TAKES 4 DAYS TO MAKE THE DEPRESSION A HURRICANE. THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 305/9. MIDDLE- TROPOSPHERIC RIDGING OVER MEXICO IS FORECAST TO REMAIN STRONG FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS... FORCING THE DEPRESSION ON A GENERAL NORTHWESTWARD HEADING. THIS GENERAL SCENARIO IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE GUIDANCE...THOUGH THEY ARE SOMEWHAT CLUSTERED IN TWO GROUPS. THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW MORE RIDGING THAN OTHER MODELS AND ARE FASTER AND MORE TO THE WEST. THE GFDL AND UKMET ARE A LITTLE FARTHER TO THE EAST BUT STILL OFFSHORE OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. AT THIS TIME...THERE IS NO GOOD REASON TO LEAN ON ONE CLUSTER MORE THAN THE OTHER SO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 21/1800Z 12.8N 102.8W 30 KT 12HR VT 22/0000Z 13.3N 103.7W 35 KT 24HR VT 22/1200Z 14.3N 105.6W 45 KT 36HR VT 23/0000Z 15.5N 107.5W 55 KT 48HR VT 23/1200Z 17.0N 109.5W 65 KT 72HR VT 24/1200Z 20.0N 113.5W 75 KT 96HR VT 25/1200Z 22.0N 116.5W 75 KT 120HR VT 26/1200Z 24.0N 120.0W 55 KT $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/FRANKLIN NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:43 UTC