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Tropical Depression TEN-E


ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP102006
1100 AM PDT MON AUG 21 2006
 
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE A FEW
HUNDRED MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO HAS BECOME
BETTER-ORGANIZED.  CURVED BANDING FEATURES AROUND THE CENTER HAVE
BECOME BETTER-DEFINED AND DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN INCREASING.  A
SPECIAL DVORAK CLASSIFICATION AT 1645 UTC FROM TAFB WAS 2.0... 30
KT AND SUPPORTS INITIATING ADVISORIES.  STEADY INTENSIFICATION
APPEARS LIKELY WITH LITTLE FORECAST SHEAR AND WARM WATERS ABOVE
29C.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE SHIPS MODEL
WHICH SEEMS MORE REASONABLE THAN THE GFDL WHICH TAKES 4 DAYS TO
MAKE THE DEPRESSION A HURRICANE.  

THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 305/9.   MIDDLE-
TROPOSPHERIC RIDGING OVER MEXICO IS FORECAST TO REMAIN STRONG FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS... FORCING THE DEPRESSION ON A GENERAL
NORTHWESTWARD HEADING.  THIS GENERAL SCENARIO IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THE GUIDANCE...THOUGH THEY ARE SOMEWHAT CLUSTERED IN TWO
GROUPS.  THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW MORE RIDGING THAN OTHER MODELS AND
ARE FASTER AND MORE TO THE WEST.  THE GFDL AND UKMET ARE A LITTLE
FARTHER TO THE EAST BUT STILL OFFSHORE OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.  AT THIS
TIME...THERE IS NO GOOD REASON TO LEAN ON ONE CLUSTER MORE THAN THE
OTHER SO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS. 
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      21/1800Z 12.8N 102.8W    30 KT
 12HR VT     22/0000Z 13.3N 103.7W    35 KT
 24HR VT     22/1200Z 14.3N 105.6W    45 KT
 36HR VT     23/0000Z 15.5N 107.5W    55 KT
 48HR VT     23/1200Z 17.0N 109.5W    65 KT
 72HR VT     24/1200Z 20.0N 113.5W    75 KT
 96HR VT     25/1200Z 22.0N 116.5W    75 KT
120HR VT     26/1200Z 24.0N 120.0W    55 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/FRANKLIN
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:43 UTC