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Tropical Storm HECTOR


ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM HECTOR DISCUSSION NUMBER  27
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP092006
200 AM PDT TUE AUG 22 2006
 
AN AMBIGUITY ANALYSIS OF A 0336Z QUIKSCAT PASS AND 0251Z 37 GHZ
AMSU-B MICROWAVE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION OF
TROPICAL STORM HECTOR IS FINALLY BECOMING DECOUPLED FROM THE
CONVECTION TO THE NORTHEAST.  THE TROPICAL CYCLONE'S MOVEMENT HAS
SLOWED AND...BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE DATA... THE
TRACK HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  A
SMALL UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER HAS BEEN
ENHANCING CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE...PRESUMABLY
HELPING TO MAINTAIN THE LOW-LEVEL VORTICITY.  IN FACT...THE
QUIKSCAT DATA SUGGESTED THAT THE INTENSITY WAS CLOSE TO 40 KT. 
HOWEVER NOW THAT HECTOR'S LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS BECOMING
DECOUPLED...IT HAS PROBABLY SPUN DOWN TO MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM
STRENGTH.  HECTOR SHOULD DISSIPATE WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO DUE
TO STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR...COOL WATERS AND STABLE AIR.
 
THE 12-H TRACK FORECAST ACCOUNTS FOR THE SLOWER INITIAL MOTION OF
285/4.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK THEN CONTINUES ON A GENERALLY
WESTWARD AND FASTER MOTION IN CONSIDERATION OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS
AND STEERING BY THE LOW-LEVEL EASTERLIES.  
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      22/0900Z 22.4N 136.5W    35 KT
 12HR VT     22/1800Z 22.6N 137.4W    30 KT
 24HR VT     23/0600Z 22.9N 139.1W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 36HR VT     23/1800Z 23.1N 141.2W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     24/0600Z 23.3N 143.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     25/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH/FIORINO
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:42 UTC