Tropical Storm EMILIA

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TROPICAL STORM EMILIA DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP062006
200 AM PDT SUN JUL 23 2006

SEVERAL HOURS AGO...EMILIA WAS NOT LOOKING LIKE MUCH OF A TROPICAL
STORM.  THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER WAS ILL-DEFINED AT BEST ON VARIOUS
MICROWAVE OVERPASSES...AND THERE WAS LITTLE OR NO EVIDENCE OF
BANDING FEATURES ON GEOSTATIONARY IR IMAGES.  IN FACT...A QUIKSCAT
PASS FROM 0145 UTC SHOWED HIGHEST WINDS JUST BELOW TROPICAL STORM
STRENGTH.  HOWEVER THESE WERE LIKELY RAIN-CONTAMINATED VECTORS
AND...ASSUMING THAT THE ACTUAL INTENSITY WAS 40 KT...IT COULD BE
ASSUMED THAT THERE WAS SOME ATTENUATION OF THE SPEED MEASUREMENTS
DUE TO PRECIPITATION.  AN ALTERNATIVE INTERPRETATION WOULD BE THAT
EMILIA WAS NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS ESTIMATED EARLIER.  HAVING SAID
THAT...LATEST IR IMAGES SHOW INCREASING CONVECTION WITH SOME
BANDING FEATURES DEVELOPING.  CURRENT INTENSITY IS SET AT 45 KT IN
AGREEMENT WITH ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND AFWA.  EMILIA SHOULD BE
TRAVERSING WARM WATERS AND THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BECOME
VERY WEAK WHICH WOULD FAVOR STRENGTHENING...POSSIBLY SIGNIFICANT
STRENGTHENING.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS JUST A LITTLE
HIGHER THAN THE LATEST SHIPS GUIDANCE.

THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN CENTER FIXES...AS MUCH AS 75 N
MI.  HOWEVER THE VARIOUS MICROWAVE IMAGES...ESPECIALLY AN 0524 UTC
AMSU-B PASS...SUGGESTED THAT THE CENTER IS TO THE WEST OF OUR
PREVIOUS TRACK.  INITIAL MOTION IS NOW ESTIMATED TO BE 310/10. 
ACCORDING TO THE GLOBAL MODELS...A LARGE AND POWERFUL
MID-TROPOSPHERIC ANTICYCLONE IS PREDICTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE OVER
THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE STEERING
FLOW ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS ANTICYCLONE SHOULD BEGIN TO
DOMINATE THE MOTION OF EMILIA WITHIN A COUPLE OF DAYS.  APPARENTLY
THE STORM IS ALREADY RESPONDING TO INCREASED RIDGING TO ITS NORTH
SINCE THE HEADING SEEMS TO BE BENDING TO THE LEFT.  BASED ON THE
MORE WESTWARD TRACK AND THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS SHIFTED TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE.  THIS IS
FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE LATEST U.K. MET. OFFICE FORECAST TRACK AND A
LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS...CONU.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      23/0900Z 17.8N 106.5W    45 KT
 12HR VT     23/1800Z 18.6N 107.7W    50 KT
 24HR VT     24/0600Z 19.3N 109.2W    60 KT
 36HR VT     24/1800Z 20.0N 110.7W    70 KT
 48HR VT     25/0600Z 20.7N 112.2W    75 KT
 72HR VT     26/0600Z 22.0N 115.0W    65 KT
 96HR VT     27/0600Z 23.5N 117.5W    45 KT
120HR VT     28/0600Z 25.5N 120.5W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
 
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