Tropical Storm EMILIA

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TROPICAL STORM EMILIA DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP062006
200 PM PDT SAT JUL 22 2006
 
EMILIA HAS CONTINUED TO MOVE QUICKLY IN A GENERAL NORTHWARD
DIRECTION... ALL THE WHILE BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. BANDING
FEATURES HAVE IMPROVED IN ALL QUADRANTS AND DEEP CONVECTION HAS
DEVELOPED NEAR THE CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 40
KT USING A BLEND OF SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 TO 45 KT
FROM THE TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 350/11. THE PREVIOUSLY EXPOSED TIGHT
LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS BECOME OBSCURED NOW WITH CONVECTION AND
CONVECTIVE CLOUD DEBRIS FROM THE NORTHEAST...WHICH HAS MADE
PLACEMENT OF THE CENTER LOCATION A LITTLE DIFFICULT. HOWEVER...ALL
OF THE AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT EMILIA SHOULD BEGIN
TO BE INFLUENCED BY THE STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ORIENTED EAST-WEST
ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO AND TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR
NORTHWEST. UNFORTUNATELY...ALL OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE A PREMATURE SHARP TURN TOWARD THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST
FROM ITS CURRENT POSITION...WHICH IS LIKELY NOT GOING TO HAPPEN.
THE ONLY MODELS THAT DO NOT INDICATE THAT SHARP OF AN INITIAL TURN
ARE THE INTERPOLATED UKMET...STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL MODEL P91E...AND
CLIPER. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS WELL TO THE RIGHT OF THE GUNS...
GUNA...AND CONU CONSENSUS MODELS...AND IS CLOSE TO THE INTERPOLATED
UKMET MODEL. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT P91E AND CLIPER ARE TO THE
RIGHT OF THE OFFICIAL TRACK AND BRING EMILIA VERY CLOSE TO THE
MEXICAN COAST IN ABOUT 24 HOURS.

EMILIA IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO LOW VERTICAL SHEAR CONDITIONS IN
12-18 HOURS. THIS FAVORABLE WIND REGIME COUPLED WITH WARM SSTS
EXCEEDING 28C SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST AN AVERAGE RATE OF
INTENSIFICATION. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE
SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS...WHICH ARE NOW MUCH CLOSER IN INTENSITY.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THE TIGHT LOW-LEVEL INNER CORE WIND FIELD
PREVIOUSLY NOTED IN VISIBLE IMAGERY...EMILIA COULD EXPERIENCE A
PERIOD OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION AND BE A HURRICANE IN 24-30 HOURS
AS IT PASSES CLOSE TO THE MEXICAN COAST

DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN BOTH THE TRACK AND THE INTENSITY FORECASTS
... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE WEST-CENTRAL
COAST OF MEXICO.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      22/2100Z 16.5N 104.6W    40 KT
 12HR VT     23/0600Z 17.8N 105.4W    45 KT
 24HR VT     23/1800Z 19.2N 106.8W    55 KT
 36HR VT     24/0600Z 20.3N 108.7W    65 KT
 48HR VT     24/1800Z 20.9N 110.2W    75 KT
 72HR VT     25/1800Z 22.3N 112.6W    70 KT
 96HR VT     26/1800Z 24.5N 115.5W    50 KT
120HR VT     27/1800Z 26.5N 119.0W    30 KT...DISSIPATING
 
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
 
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