Tropical Depression SIX-E

ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP062006
800 AM PDT FRI JUL 21 2006
 
THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER THAT NHC HAS BEEN MONITORING FOR THE
PAST SEVERAL DAYS HAS DEVELOPED A SURFACE CIRCULATION AND ENOUGH
DEEP CONVECTION TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. VISIBLE
IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE DEPRESSION IS SHEARED AND THE CENTER IS
LOCATED TO THE EAST THE MAIN CONVECTION. THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO
GRADUALLY RELAX AND THE OCEAN IS WARM. THEREFORE...A GRADUAL
STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED.
 
THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 320 DEGREES AT 3 KNOTS.
THE STEERING CURRENTS ARE WEAK...SO A SLOW NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS
INDICATED FOR A DAY OR TWO. THEREAFTER...A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED IS INDICATED AS A MIDDLE-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE CYCLONE. BOTH ECMWF AND THE GFDL HAVE A MORE
AGGRESSIVE NORTHWESTWARD TRACK WHILE THE GFS SHOWS A WEST-NORTHWEST
MOTION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN BETWEEN THESE TWO OPTIONS.
 
  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      21/1500Z 12.1N 103.1W    25 KT
 12HR VT     22/0000Z 12.3N 103.5W    30 KT
 24HR VT     22/1200Z 13.0N 104.5W    35 KT
 36HR VT     23/0000Z 14.0N 106.0W    35 KT
 48HR VT     23/1200Z 15.0N 107.5W    40 KT
 72HR VT     24/1200Z 17.0N 109.5W    45 KT
 96HR VT     25/1200Z 19.0N 112.0W    45 KT
120HR VT     26/1200Z 22.0N 115.0W    45 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
 
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