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Hurricane DANIEL


ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  28
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP052006
200 PM PDT SUN JUL 23 2006
 
DANIEL CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT A FAIRLY WELL-DEFINED EYE...HOWEVER
CLOUD TOPS HAVE BEEN GRADUALLY WARMING.  SUBJECTIVE DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE DECREASED AND CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
FROM ALL THREE AGENCIES ARE 102 KT.  THEREFORE...THE INITIAL
INTENSITY WILL BE REDUCED TO 105 KT. 

THE HURRICANE SHOWS NO SIGN OF SLOWING ITS FORWARD SPEED AS SOME OF
THE GUIDANCE HAS SUGGESTED. THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT
285/13. THE FORECAST REASONING REMAINS VIRTUALLY UNCHANGED FROM THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY AS DANIEL IS EXPECTED TO BE STEERED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD BY A MID-TO-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO ITS NORTH...WHICH IS
FORECAST TO WEAKEN IN 36-48 HOURS. THE GFDL AND GFS CONTINUE TO BE
THE RIGHT- AND LEFT-MOST MODELS...RESPECTIVELY. THE GFS WEAKENS
DANIEL FAR TOO RAPIDLY AND THEN STALLS THE REMNANTS NEAR 140W IN
ABOUT 24 HOURS. THIS EVOLUTION SEEMS UNREALISTIC. THE GFDL HAS
CONTINUED TO FORECAST A MORE NORTHWARD TURN IN ABOUT 36-48 HOURS.
THE UKMET AND NOGAPS CONTINUE TO FORECAST MORE RIDGING AND KEEPS
THE HURRICANE ON A STEADY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. IT SHOULD BE
NOTED THAT THE UKMET HAS SHIFTED CONSIDERABLY NORTHWARD AT DAYS 4
AND 5. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST DISCOUNTS BOTH THE GFS AND GFDL
SOLUTIONS AND IS NEAR THE CONSENSUS OF THE REMAINING MODELS.

DANIEL IS FORECAST TO STEADILY WEAKEN AS IS MOVES OVER SLIGHTLY
COOLER WATERS.  HOWEVER...VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN
LIGHT THROUGH 72 HOURS.  AT DAYS 4 AND 5....THE SHIPS MODEL IS
FORECASTING SHEAR TO INCREASE...WHICH MAY BE UNREPRESENTATIVE DUE
TO THE LARGE SAMPLING RADIUS USED BY THE SHIPS MODEL TO CALCULATE
SHEAR.  THEREFORE...THE INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS LESS WEAKENING
THAN SHIPS.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      23/2100Z 15.3N 137.1W   105 KT
 12HR VT     24/0600Z 15.7N 138.8W    95 KT
 24HR VT     24/1800Z 16.2N 140.4W    80 KT
 36HR VT     25/0600Z 16.7N 141.8W    70 KT
 48HR VT     25/1800Z 17.2N 143.0W    60 KT
 72HR VT     26/1800Z 18.1N 145.7W    55 KT
 96HR VT     27/1800Z 19.3N 149.5W    50 KT
120HR VT     28/1800Z 20.5N 154.5W    50 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN/STEWART
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:40 UTC