ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 22 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052006 200 AM PDT SAT JUL 22 2006 DANIEL HAS REMAINED A REMARKABLE CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE FOR 36 HOURS...AND THE OVERALL APPEARANCE OF THE HURRICANE HAS CHANGED LITTLE SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY. COLD CLOUD TOPS OF -70C OR COLDER ARE FOUND ACROSS THE EYEWALL RING...AND THE 25NM DIAMETER EYE HAS WARMED TO NEAR 19C. DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITIES FROM ALL THREE AGENCIES WERE 6.5...127 KT. BASED ON THIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 130 KT...WITH DANIEL FORECAST TO MAINTAIN THIS INTENSITY FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS. DANIEL CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD AT 280/10 AS A RESULT OF A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE TO ITS NORTH. THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS RUN THROUGH 48 HOURS AS A GENERALLY WESTWARD MOTION IS ANTICIPATED. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS SOLUTION AS WELL AND IS SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. AFTER 72 HOURS...THE DYNAMICAL MODELS MOVE DANIEL ON A MORE NORTHWESTERLY TRACK IN RESPONSE TO A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH CURRENTLY AT 150W. BOTH THE GFDL AND UKMET CONTINUE TO LIE ON EITHER END OF THE SPECTRUM... WITH THE GFDL BEING A RIGHT OUTLIER TO THE NORTH AND THE UKMET A LEFT OUTLIER TO THE WEST. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST FOLLOWS A MORE NORTHWESTWARD TRACK JUST TO THE RIGHT OF THE CONSENSUS MODELS...BUT IS TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK FORECAST. THE NEW TRACK FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...SO DANIEL IS EXPECTED TO STAY OVER WARM WATERS FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS. SINCE DANIEL IS CLASSIFIED AS AN ANNULAR HURRICANE...WEAKENING SHOULD OCCUR MORE SLOWLY UNTIL THE HURRICANE REACHES WATERS BELOW 25C. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER THE GFDL MODEL THROUGH 36 HR AND THE SHIPS MODEL THROUGH 96 HR. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 22/0900Z 13.8N 129.7W 130 KT 12HR VT 22/1800Z 14.1N 131.3W 130 KT 24HR VT 23/0600Z 14.5N 133.2W 120 KT 36HR VT 23/1800Z 14.9N 134.8W 105 KT 48HR VT 24/0600Z 15.2N 136.0W 80 KT 72HR VT 25/0600Z 16.0N 138.0W 60 KT 96HR VT 26/0600Z 17.5N 139.5W 50 KT 120HR VT 27/0600Z 20.0N 142.5W 40 KT $$ FORECASTER MAINELLI/BEVEN NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:40 UTC