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Hurricane DANIEL


ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  22
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP052006
200 AM PDT SAT JUL 22 2006
 
DANIEL HAS REMAINED A REMARKABLE CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE FOR 36
HOURS...AND THE OVERALL APPEARANCE OF THE HURRICANE HAS CHANGED
LITTLE SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY.  COLD CLOUD TOPS OF -70C OR COLDER
ARE FOUND ACROSS THE EYEWALL RING...AND THE 25NM DIAMETER EYE HAS
WARMED TO NEAR 19C.  DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITIES FROM ALL THREE
AGENCIES WERE 6.5...127 KT.  BASED ON THIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY
REMAINS 130 KT...WITH DANIEL FORECAST TO MAINTAIN THIS INTENSITY
FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS.
 
DANIEL CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD AT 280/10 AS A RESULT OF A MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE TO ITS NORTH.  THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS SIMILAR TO
THE PREVIOUS RUN THROUGH 48 HOURS AS A GENERALLY WESTWARD MOTION IS
ANTICIPATED.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS SOLUTION AS
WELL AND IS SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.  AFTER
72 HOURS...THE DYNAMICAL MODELS MOVE DANIEL ON A MORE NORTHWESTERLY
TRACK IN RESPONSE TO A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH CURRENTLY AT 150W.  BOTH
THE GFDL AND UKMET CONTINUE TO LIE ON EITHER END OF THE SPECTRUM...
WITH THE GFDL BEING A RIGHT OUTLIER TO THE NORTH AND THE UKMET A
LEFT OUTLIER TO THE WEST.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST FOLLOWS A
MORE NORTHWESTWARD TRACK JUST TO THE RIGHT OF THE CONSENSUS
MODELS...BUT IS TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK FORECAST.
 
THE NEW TRACK FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...SO DANIEL IS EXPECTED TO STAY OVER WARM WATERS FOR
THE NEXT 36 HOURS.  SINCE DANIEL IS CLASSIFIED AS AN ANNULAR
HURRICANE...WEAKENING SHOULD OCCUR MORE SLOWLY UNTIL THE HURRICANE
REACHES WATERS BELOW 25C.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE INTENSITY
FORECAST IS SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER THE GFDL MODEL THROUGH 36 HR AND
THE SHIPS MODEL THROUGH 96 HR.
 
  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      22/0900Z 13.8N 129.7W   130 KT
 12HR VT     22/1800Z 14.1N 131.3W   130 KT
 24HR VT     23/0600Z 14.5N 133.2W   120 KT
 36HR VT     23/1800Z 14.9N 134.8W   105 KT
 48HR VT     24/0600Z 15.2N 136.0W    80 KT
 72HR VT     25/0600Z 16.0N 138.0W    60 KT
 96HR VT     26/0600Z 17.5N 139.5W    50 KT
120HR VT     27/0600Z 20.0N 142.5W    40 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI/BEVEN
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:40 UTC