ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 21 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052006 800 PM PDT FRI JUL 21 2006 CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES ARE COOLING AGAIN...AND DANIEL CURRENTLY IS SURROUNDED BY A SOLID EYEWALL RING OF -70C OR COLDER TOPS. EYE TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO WARMING AND THE EYE...NOW ABOUT 25 NM ACROSS...HAS BEEN SHRINKING. IN ADDITION...DANIEL IS PRESENTLY MOVING OVER A LOCAL MAXIMUM IN SST. DVORAK CI NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB WERE 6.5...127 KT...AT 00Z...WHILE THE LATEST 3-HR MEAN RAW T-NUMBER FROM THE UW/CIMSS ADT WAS T6.7...132 KT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 130 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. A RECENT AMSU PASS DOES NOT SHOW ANY EVIDENCE OF ANOTHER EYEWALL CYCLE...AND SO LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO. A DEFINITE WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED WHEN SUB-26C SSTS ARE REACHED IN ABOUT 36 HOURS. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/10. THERE HAS BEEN VIRTUALLY NO CHANGE TO THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST...WHICH CALLS FOR DANIEL TO CONTINUE JUST NORTH OF WEST FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO TO THE SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 48 HOURS. AFTER THAT...THE GUIDANCE DIFFERS IN HOW THE RIDGE RESPONDS TO AN UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY ALONG 155W. THE GFDL...WHICH HAS HAD A RIGHT BIAS WITH DANIEL FOR SOME TIME...CONTINUES TO SHOW THE SHARPEST NORTHWARD TURN...WHILE THE UKMET KEEPS THE RIDGE RELATIVELY INTACT AND IS THE SOUTHERNMOST OUTLIER. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ON THE UKMET SIDE OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS...AND IS CLOSE TO THE GFS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 22/0300Z 13.6N 128.5W 130 KT 12HR VT 22/1200Z 13.9N 130.0W 130 KT 24HR VT 23/0000Z 14.3N 131.8W 120 KT 36HR VT 23/1200Z 14.8N 133.5W 100 KT 48HR VT 24/0000Z 15.2N 134.7W 75 KT 72HR VT 25/0000Z 15.9N 136.5W 55 KT 96HR VT 26/0000Z 17.5N 138.0W 45 KT 120HR VT 27/0000Z 19.5N 140.5W 30 KT $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN NNNN
Alternate Formats
About Alternates -
E-Mail Advisories -
RSS Feeds
Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory -
Past Advisories -
About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
Latest Products -
About Marine Products
Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery -
US Weather Radar -
Aircraft Recon -
Local Data Archive -
Forecast Verification -
Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense
Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names
Wind Scale -
Prepare -
Climatology -
NHC Glossary -
NHC Acronyms -
Frequently Asked Questions -
AOML Hurricane-Research Division
About Us
About NHC -
Mission/Vision -
Other NCEP Centers -
NHC Staff -
Visitor Information -
NHC Library
NOAA/
National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:40 UTC