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Hurricane DANIEL


ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP052006
800 PM PDT FRI JUL 21 2006
 
CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES ARE COOLING AGAIN...AND DANIEL CURRENTLY IS
SURROUNDED BY A SOLID EYEWALL RING OF -70C OR COLDER TOPS.  EYE
TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO WARMING AND THE EYE...NOW ABOUT 25 NM
ACROSS...HAS BEEN SHRINKING.  IN ADDITION...DANIEL IS PRESENTLY
MOVING OVER A LOCAL MAXIMUM IN SST.  DVORAK CI NUMBERS FROM TAFB
AND SAB WERE 6.5...127 KT...AT 00Z...WHILE THE LATEST 3-HR MEAN RAW
T-NUMBER FROM THE UW/CIMSS ADT WAS T6.7...132 KT.  THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 130 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.  A RECENT AMSU
PASS DOES NOT SHOW ANY EVIDENCE OF ANOTHER EYEWALL CYCLE...AND SO
LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS OR SO.  A DEFINITE WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED WHEN SUB-26C
SSTS ARE REACHED IN ABOUT 36 HOURS.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/10.  THERE HAS BEEN VIRTUALLY NO CHANGE TO
THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST...WHICH CALLS FOR DANIEL TO CONTINUE
JUST NORTH OF WEST FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO TO THE SOUTH OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH 48 HOURS.  AFTER THAT...THE GUIDANCE DIFFERS IN HOW THE
RIDGE RESPONDS TO AN UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY ALONG 155W.  THE
GFDL...WHICH HAS HAD A RIGHT BIAS WITH DANIEL FOR SOME
TIME...CONTINUES TO SHOW THE SHARPEST NORTHWARD TURN...WHILE THE
UKMET KEEPS THE RIDGE RELATIVELY INTACT AND IS THE SOUTHERNMOST
OUTLIER.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ON THE UKMET SIDE OF THE MODEL
CONSENSUS...AND IS CLOSE TO THE GFS.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      22/0300Z 13.6N 128.5W   130 KT
 12HR VT     22/1200Z 13.9N 130.0W   130 KT
 24HR VT     23/0000Z 14.3N 131.8W   120 KT
 36HR VT     23/1200Z 14.8N 133.5W   100 KT
 48HR VT     24/0000Z 15.2N 134.7W    75 KT
 72HR VT     25/0000Z 15.9N 136.5W    55 KT
 96HR VT     26/0000Z 17.5N 138.0W    45 KT
120HR VT     27/0000Z 19.5N 140.5W    30 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:40 UTC