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Hurricane DANIEL


ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP052006
200 PM PDT THU JUL 20 2006
 
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT DANIEL HAS BECOME A 
VERY IMPRESSIVE HURRICANE. A RECENT SSMIS MICROWAVE OVERPASS
DETECTED A VERY SYMMETRIC HURRICANE WITH A 25-30 NM WIDE EYE. 
DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...THE EYE HAS BECOME MORE DISTINCT 
AND WARMED...WHICH HAS ALLOWED DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES TO
INCREASE TO 115 KT FROM ALL AGENCIES. THE INITIAL INTENSITY 
HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 115 KT...MAKING DANIEL A POWERFUL CATEGORY
FOUR HURRICANE.

BOTH THE SHIPS AND GFDL INTENSITY GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT DANIEL
SHOULD REACH ITS PEAK INTENSITY VERY SOON.  THE OFFICIAL 
WIND SPEED FORECAST HAS BEEN MODIFIED SLIGHTLY TO REFLECT THIS. 
IT IS ANTICIPATED THAT THE HURRICANE WILL BE SLOWER TO WEAKEN THAN
GUIDANCE INDICATES GIVEN ITS ANNULAR APPEARANCE. AFTER 48 HOURS...
DANIEL WILL LIKELY WEAKEN AT A FASTER RATE...AS SHEAR IS FORECAST 
TO INCREASE AND THE SSTS GRADUALLY COOL. 
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 290/8.  MODEL GUIDANCE IS 
TIGHTLY CLUSTERED ON A WEST-NORTHWEST HEADING FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS. 
THEREAFTER...SOME SPREAD IS SEEN IN THE TRACK MODELS AS THE GFDL
CONTINUES TO TURN THE CYCLONE NORTHWARD...WHILE THE UKMET...
NOGAPS...AND GFS CONTINUE DANIEL ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD HEADING.
THE CURRENT TRACK MAINTAINS THE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD HEADING AND IS
AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK. 

AN EXCELLENT AND VERY IMPRESSIVE QUIKSCAT PASS FROM 1356 UTC HELPED
TO DEFINE THE WIND RADII FOR THIS ADVISORY.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      20/2100Z 12.7N 123.4W   115 KT
 12HR VT     21/0600Z 13.1N 124.6W   120 KT
 24HR VT     21/1800Z 13.6N 126.1W   110 KT
 36HR VT     22/0600Z 14.1N 127.9W   100 KT
 48HR VT     22/1800Z 14.6N 129.6W    85 KT
 72HR VT     23/1800Z 15.5N 133.0W    65 KT
 96HR VT     24/1800Z 16.5N 135.5W    55 KT
120HR VT     25/1800Z 18.0N 137.5W    45 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:40 UTC