Hurricane BUD

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HURRICANE BUD DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP032006
200 AM PDT THU JUL 13 2006
 
BUD HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN OVERNIGHT. THE HURRICANE HAS
A WELL-DEFINED AND CLEAR EYE OF ABOUT 20 N MI DIAMETER...
SURROUNDED BY NEARLY A COMPLETE RING OF CLOUD TOPS NEAR
-70C...ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES AT 06Z OF 102-115 KT. THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS RAISED TO
110 KT.  MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS SEEMINGLY CANNOT LAST TOO MUCH
LONGER...HOWEVER...AS BUD IS QUICKLY CROSSING THE 26C SST ISOTHERM.
CONCURRENT WITH THE STRENGTHENING...A QUIKSCAT OVERPASS AT 0230Z
INDICATES THAT THE 34-KT WIND FIELD HAS CONTRACTED SOMEWHAT. SINCE
BUD IS A SMALL TROPICAL CYCLONE IT WILL PROBABLY SPIN DOWN FAIRLY
QUICKLY OVER THE COOLER WATERS...ESPECIALLY BEYOND ABOUT 24 HOURS
WHEN IT REACHES SSTS OF LESS THAN 24C.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST ANTICIPATES JUST A SLIGHTLY MORE RAPID DECLINE THAN THE
SHIPS GUIDANCE DUE TO THE CONTINUED BRISK FORWARD MOTION OF THE
STORM...BUT STILL KEEPS BUD A HURRICANE THROUGH 36 HOURS.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE BASED ON THE LAST 12 HOURS IS
290/15...ALTHOUGH MORE RECENTLY IT HAS BEEN TRENDING LEFT OF THAT
HEADING...OR MORE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST.  THE HURRICANE IS
MOVING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
THAT IS CENTERED OVER NORTHERN MEXICO...AND TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN
THE RIDGE ALONG ABOUT 130W.  ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST THAT
WEAKNESS TO BEGIN FILLING IN ABOUT 24-36 HOURS...ALLOWING THE RIDGE
TO BUILD WESTWARD.  ONCE THAT OCCURS AND BUD WEAKENS OVER COOLER
WATERS...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD TURN WESTWARD ALONG ABOUT 21N
LATITUDE...IN ABOUT 48 HOURS.  LEAVING OUT THE GFS THAT DOES NOT
REPRESENT THE CIRCULATION OF BUD VERY WELL...THE OFFICIAL TRACK
FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS A CONSENSUS OF THE REMAINING DYNAMICAL
MODELS AND IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...ONLY A LITTLE
FASTER.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      13/0900Z 17.5N 120.5W   110 KT
 12HR VT     13/1800Z 18.4N 122.8W   100 KT
 24HR VT     14/0600Z 19.5N 125.6W    85 KT
 36HR VT     14/1800Z 20.4N 128.3W    65 KT
 48HR VT     15/0600Z 20.9N 130.9W    50 KT
 72HR VT     16/0600Z 21.0N 135.5W    30 KT
 96HR VT     17/0600Z 21.0N 140.0W    30 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     18/0600Z 20.5N 144.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER KNABB
 
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