Tropical Depression TWO-E

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP022006
800 AM PDT SAT JUN 03 2006
 
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER THAT
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS BEEN MONITORING FOR THE PAST FEW
DAYS APPEARS TO HAVE DEVELOPED A CLOSED SURFACE CIRCULATION AND
ENOUGH DEEP CONVECTION TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR SIGNIFICANT ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT AND SINCE A PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION IS ALREADY
INTERACTING WITH LAND...NO SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION IS
ANTICIPATED. HOWEVER...A SMALL DECREASE IN THE WIND SHEAR COULD
BRING THE DEPRESSION TO TROPICAL STORM STATUS.
 
THE CENTER IS VERY DIFFICULT TO LOCATE BUT IT APPEARS TO BE EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE DEEP CONVECTION AS SUGGESTED BY THE LATEST AMSU DATA AND
HIGH RESOLUTION VISIBLE IMAGES. THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL
MOTION IS 020/06...AND THIS IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. THE DEPRESSION IS
EXPECTED TO BE STEERED TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR NORTHEAST BY A
WEAK SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. THIS TRACK SHOULD BRING THE CENTER OF THE
DEPRESSION TO THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO EARLY SUNDAY. ONE SHOULD
NOTE THAT SOME GLOBAL MODELS KEEP THE CYCLONE MEANDERING ALONG AND
NEAR THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO FOR A FEW DAYS. THIS SOLUTION IS
ALSO A POSSIBLE ONE.
 
BECAUSE THE DEPRESSION IS NOT EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY...THE PRIMARY
THREAT IS HEAVY RAINFALL. HOWEVER...ALL INTERESTS ALONG THE COAST
OF MEXICO FROM ACAPULCO TO MANZANILLO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF THIS SYSTEM. 
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      03/1500Z 16.0N 102.8W    25 KT
 12HR VT     04/0000Z 16.7N 102.5W    30 KT
 24HR VT     04/1200Z 17.5N 101.5W    30 KT
 36HR VT     05/0000Z 17.5N 100.5W    20 KT
 48HR VT     05/1200Z 17.5N  99.5W    20 KT
 
 
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