Tropical Depression ONE-E

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP012006
300 AM PDT SAT MAY 27 2006
 
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO HAS DEVELOPED ENOUGH DEEP ORGANIZED
CONVECTION TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A 25-KNOT TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THIS
IS SUPPORTED BY DVORAK T-NUMBERS OF 2.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE FROM
BOTH TAFB AND SAB.  THE DEPRESSION CONTINUES TO BE UNDER A STRONG
SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION IS LOCATED TO THE
WEST OF A CYCLONICALLY CURVED CONVECTIVE BAND. ALTHOUGH IT IS NOT
ANTICIPATED...ONLY SMALL RELAXATION OF THE SHEAR COULD BRING THE
SYSTEM TO TROPICAL STORM STATUS.    

THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN MOVING VERY LITTLE AND IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO BE EMBEDDED WITHIN WEAK STEERING CURRENTS. THEREFORE...
THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO MEANDER SOUTH OF THE COAST OF MEXICO
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE LATEST GFDL
AND GLOBAL MODEL RUNS. HOWEVER...ANY NORTHWARD DRIFT COULD BRING
GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS TO THE SOUTH COAST OF MEXICO. INTERESTS
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE
DEPRESSION.
 
FORECASTER AVILA

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      27/1000Z 14.5N 101.5W    25 KT
 12HR VT     27/1800Z 14.6N 101.6W    30 KT
 24HR VT     28/0600Z 15.0N 101.5W    30 KT
 36HR VT     28/1800Z 15.5N 101.4W    30 KT
 48HR VT     29/0600Z 16.0N 101.5W    30 KT
 72HR VT     30/0600Z 16.5N 102.0W    30 KT
 96HR VT     31/0600Z 16.5N 102.5W    30 KT
120HR VT     01/0600Z 16.5N 103.0W    30 KT
 
 
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