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Hurricane GORDON


ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE GORDON DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072006
1100 PM EDT TUE SEP 12 2006
 
THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME MORE SYMMETRIC WITH DEEP CONVECTION 
SURROUNDED BY A WELL-DEFINED CURVED BAND. MORE SIGNIFICANTLY...
THERE HAS BEEN AN INTERMITTENT EYE FEATURE ON CONVENTIONAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY WHICH WAS ALSO OBSERVED IN MICROWAVE DATA. 
DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE BETWEEN 4.0 AND 4.5 FROM ALL AGENCIES WHILE
OBJECTIVES NUMBERS REACHED 5.4 AROUND 0000 UTC.  THE OBJECTIVE
NUMBERS HAVE DECREASED SINCE THEN...BUT STILL SUPPORT HURRICANE
STRENGTH. GORDON IS DEFINITELY STRONGER THAN EARLIER TODAY AND THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 65 KNOTS. ALL AVAILABLE GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT THERE SHOULD BE SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING BEFORE
THE SHEAR INCREASES IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...AND SO DOES THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST.    

GORDON IS MOVING NORTHWARD OR 360 DEGREES AT 8 KNOTS. THE CYCLONE IS
ALREADY ON THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND READY
TO BECOME EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES.  HOWEVER...
THESE WESTERLIES ARE FORECAST TO WEAKEN GRADUALLY...THEREFORE NO
SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS ANTICIPATED. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS BASICALLY IN THE MIDDLE OF THE TRACK ENVELOPE. ONLY THE
UK MODEL ACCELERATES GORDON TOWARD THE NORTHEAST DURING THE LAST
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. GORDON IS NO THREAT TO LAND.

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      13/0300Z 24.4N  57.9W    65 KT
 12HR VT     13/1200Z 25.6N  57.9W    75 KT
 24HR VT     14/0000Z 27.5N  57.5W    85 KT
 36HR VT     14/1200Z 29.0N  57.0W    85 KT
 48HR VT     15/0000Z 30.5N  56.5W    85 KT
 72HR VT     16/0000Z 33.0N  54.0W    70 KT
 96HR VT     17/0000Z 35.0N  52.0W    60 KT
120HR VT     18/0000Z 37.0N  49.0W    50 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Wednesday, 13-Sep-2006 02:35:01 UTC