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Hurricane FLORENCE


ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE FLORENCE DISCUSSION NUMBER  34
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062006
1100 PM EDT MON SEP 11 2006

THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF FLORENCE HAS BEEN DETERIORATING WITH
ALMOST ALL OF THE CONVECTION TO THE NORTH AND REMOVED FROM THE
CENTER. THE CLOUD PATTERN ALSO SUGGESTS THAT THE CYCLONE MIGHT BE
BEGINNING THE FIRST STAGES OF EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. DVORAK
SATELLITE ESTIMATES ARE DROPPING AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE
LOWERED TO 75 KT. FURTHER WEAKENING IS LIKELY AS THE HURRICANE
SLOWLY TAKES ON NON-TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AS IT INTERACTS WITH A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES NORTH OF THE CENTER.
HOWEVER...ALL GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THAT FLORENCE WILL BE A LARGE
POWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE... AND SO DOES THE INTENSITY
FORECAST. ONE QUESTION MARK IS HOW FAST FLORENCE COMPLETES ITS
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. FSU PHASE-SPACE DIAGRAMS DERIVED FROM
GLOBAL MODEL FIELDS WOULD INDICATE FULL TRANSITION BY 3 DAYS. WE
ARE INDICATING FLORENCE TO BE EXTRATROPICAL BY 48 HOURS... JUST A
LITTLE FASTER THAN THESE MODELS BUT SEEMINGLY REASONABLE SINCE THE
HURRICANE IS ALREADY LOOKING A LITTLE LESS THAN TROPICAL.  

FLORENCE IS SPEEDING UP TONIGHT... NOW MOVING 025/16. A
MIDDLE-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH LOCATED OVER CANADA INTO THE NORTHEAST
UNITED STATES SHOULD ACCELERATE THE HURRICANE TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD FOR 24 TO 36 HOURS. THEREAFTER... A TURN TO THE
NORTHEAST SHOULD OCCUR AS THE SYSTEM NEARS NEWFOUNDLAND. MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO AND THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. THE EXTRATROPICAL
WIND RADII ARE A BLEND OF THE UKMET AND GFS FORECASTS.   

A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN FLORENCE AND A STRONG HIGH
CENTERED OVER SOUTHEASTERN CANADA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE STRONG
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ALONG AND OFFSHORE OF THE EAST COAST OF THE
UNITED STATES. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE VERY ROUGH AND
DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS WITH POTENTIALLY DEADLY RIP CURRENTS
ALONG NEARLY THE ENTIRE ATLANTIC EAST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE RADII OF 12-FT SEAS SHOWN IN THE FORECAST/
ADVISORY DOES NOT FULLY ACCOUNT FOR THE HUGE AREA OF HIGH WAVES
INDIRECTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS HURRICANE.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      12/0300Z 35.8N  63.9W    75 KT
 12HR VT     12/1200Z 37.8N  62.6W    70 KT
 24HR VT     13/0000Z 40.6N  59.9W    65 KT
 36HR VT     13/1200Z 44.0N  56.4W    60 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
 48HR VT     14/0000Z 46.5N  51.5W    60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 72HR VT     15/0000Z 49.5N  37.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 96HR VT     16/0000Z 52.0N  20.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT     17/0000Z...ABSORBED
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Tuesday, 12-Sep-2006 02:35:01 UTC