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Tropical Storm FLORENCE


ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE DISCUSSION NUMBER  26
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062006
1100 PM EDT SAT SEP 09 2006
 
SATELLITE PICTURES INDICATE THAT FLORENCE IS POSSIBLY STRENGTHENING
TONIGHT. A ROUND CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FORMED OVER THE APPARENT
CENTER... AND EARLIER MICROWAVE IMAGES SHOW THE POSSIBLE FORMATION
OF AN EYE. HOWEVER... RECENTLY THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME
ELONGATED FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AND CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED. IN
ADDITION...A QUIKSCAT PASS AT 2238 UTC DID NOT SHOW ANY WIND SPEEDS
GREATER THAN 50 TO 55 KT.  ALTHOUGH DVORAK SATELLITE
CLASSIFICATIONS SUPPORT HURRICANE INTENSITY... THE INITIAL
INTENSITY WILL BE HELD AT 55 KT.  FLORENCE HAS FOOLED US BEFORE AND
IT IS BEST TO WAIT FOR AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
THAT WILL BE IN THE AREA IN A COUPLE OF HOURS.
 
THE BEST ESTIMATE OF INITIAL MOTION IS ALMOST THE SAME AS BEFORE...
330/11... ALTHOUGH A SHORT-TERM MOTION IS A LITTLE FASTER.  TRACK
MODELS ARE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED ON A PATH NEAR OR JUST TO THE WEST OF
BERMUDA ON MONDAY. THEREAFTER... SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ON HOW
FLORENCE INTERACTS WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH.  MODEL
GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THAT THE CYCLONE WILL BE PULLED A LITTLE
MORE TO THE LEFT... AS IT IS SOMEWHAT CAPTURED BY THE UPPER-TROUGH. 
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE FOR THE
FIRST DAY OR SO... THEN SHIFTED WESTWARD CLOSER TO THE MODEL
CONSENSUS.
 
ALL SIGNS POINT TO INTENSIFICATION OF FLORENCE...AND IN FACT THIS
INTENSIFICATION COULD BE RAPID.  THE SHIPS RAPID INTENSIFICATION
INDEX INDICATES NEARLY A 50% CHANCE OF A 25 KT INCREASE IN
INTENSITY IN NEXT 24 HOURS...ALTHOUGH IT INDICATED ALMOST THE SAME
PROBABILITIES 24 HOURS AGO.  FLORENCE HAS BEEN QUITE STUBBORN AND
HAS REFUSED... SO FAR... TO INTENSIFY AS MUCH AS ALMOST ALL
INTENSITY GUIDANCE HAS SUGGESTED.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS ABOUT
THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS ONE BUT WITH SOME REDUCTION BEYOND 36
HOURS AS THE CYCLONE ENCOUNTERS A HIGHER SHEAR ENVIRONMENT.  THE
SYSTEM COULD PEAK A LITTLE STRONGER THAN SHOWN BELOW IN BETWEEN THE
36 AND 48 HOUR TIME PERIODS.   
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      10/0300Z 26.6N  64.9W    55 KT
 12HR VT     10/1200Z 27.9N  65.6W    65 KT
 24HR VT     11/0000Z 29.8N  65.9W    75 KT
 36HR VT     11/1200Z 31.8N  65.4W    85 KT...NEAR BERMUDA
 48HR VT     12/0000Z 34.4N  64.2W    85 KT
 72HR VT     13/0000Z 40.0N  60.0W    75 KT
 96HR VT     14/0000Z 46.0N  53.0W    65 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT     15/0000Z 49.0N  42.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/KNABB
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:37 UTC