Tropical Storm FLORENCE

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TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE DISCUSSION NUMBER  18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062006
1100 PM EDT THU SEP 07 2006
 
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT FLORENCE REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED
WITH AN ELONGATED SHAPELESS CLOUD PATTERN WHICH IS NOT VERY TYPICAL
OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE. IN FACT..CURRENT DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM SAB
AND TAFB DO NOT SUPPORT WINDS HIGHER THAN 35 KNOTS. HOWEVER...
USING CONTINUITY AND QUIKSCAT...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
KEPT AT 45 KNOTS. THESE WINDS ARE CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN
SEMICIRCLE.  

I CANNOT FIND ANY REAL GOOD REASON WHY FLORENCE HAS NOT YET
INTENSIFIED SINCE THE INGREDIENTS COMMONLY USED TO FORECAST
STRENGTHENING ARE PRESENT. THE OCEAN IS PLENTY WARM...ABOUT 29
DEGREES CELSIUS ACCORDING TO NEARBY BUOYS...THE SHEAR IS LOW...AND
THERE IS A LARGE LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC ENVELOPE WITH PLENTY OF
CONVECTION. IN ADDITION...RELIABLE MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING
INTENSIFICATION FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS...ALTHOUGH THEY HAVE BEGUN TO
BACK OFF A LITTLE. THE ONLY SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE CONTRIBUTIONS TO
INTENSITY CHANGE ACCORDING TO THE SHIPS MODEL ARE THE TEMPERATURES
AT THE UPPER LEVELS...AND THE HUMIDITY. HAVING SAID THAT...I HAVE
NO CHOICE BUT TO FORECAST STRENGTHENING AGAIN.
 
THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN....HOWEVER...I AM
CONFIDENT IN THE TRACK FORECAST.  FLORENCE IS MOVING TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST AT 13 KNOTS AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE AND WITHIN WELL-DEFINED STEERING CURRENTS. IN ABOUT 48
HOURS...FLORENCE WILL BE ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE AND
SHOULD BEGIN TO TURN GRADUALLY NORTHWARD AND THEN NORTHEASTWARD AS
IT BECOMES EMBEDDED IN THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. THIS IS THE
SOLUTION PROVIDED BY THE TRACK MODELS. THIS FORECAST WOULD BRING
THE CYCLONE NEAR BERMUDA IN A LITTLE MORE THAN 3 DAYS.

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      08/0300Z 21.3N  56.1W    45 KT
 12HR VT     08/1200Z 22.3N  58.0W    50 KT
 24HR VT     09/0000Z 23.7N  60.4W    55 KT
 36HR VT     09/1200Z 25.0N  62.5W    65 KT
 48HR VT     10/0000Z 26.5N  64.5W    75 KT
 72HR VT     11/0000Z 30.0N  65.5W    90 KT
 96HR VT     12/0000Z 34.0N  64.5W    90 KT
120HR VT     13/0000Z 42.0N  58.0W    90 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
 
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FORECASTER AVILA
 
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