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Tropical Storm FLORENCE


ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE DISCUSSION NUMBER  17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062006
500 PM EDT THU SEP 07 2006
 
FLORENCE REMAINS AN UNUSUALLY LARGE...NOW MORE THAN 900 NMI
DIAMETER... NON-CLASSICAL TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE WIND FIELD WAS
EXPANDED AGAIN...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT...BASED ON
SURROUNDING SHIP AND BUOY REPORTS. THE OUTER CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE
HAS CHANGED LITTLE TODAY...WHEREAS INNER CORE CONVECTION HAS BEGUN
TO DEVELOP OVER AND TO THE WEST OF THE CENTER FOR THE FIRST TIME.
SINCE FLORENCE IS SUCH A LARGE SYSTEM...CONVECTIVE FLUCTUATIONS IN
THE OUTER REGIONS LIKELY WILL HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON THE WIND SPEEDS
SINCE THE LATTER ARE DRIVEN MORE BY THE SHARP PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE CYCLONE AND THE LARGE HIGH SITUATED TO THE NORTH. NOW
THAT INNER CORE CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED...STEADY STRENGTHENING IS
FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 96 HOURS WITH SLOW WEAKENING EXPECTED AFTER
THAT DUE TO INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR AND COOLER WATERS.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/12. FLORENCE REMAINS ON TRACK SO
THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK FORECAST OR
REASONING. THE GLOBAL MODELS REMAIN TIGHTLY CLUSTERED ON TAKING
FLORENCE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THROUGH 72 HOURS...AND THEN TURNING THE CYCLONE
NORTHWEST AND NORTHWARD INTO A BREAK IN THE RIDGE THAT IS FORECAST
BY ALL THE MODELS TO DEVELOP IN 72-96 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS...
AND BRINGS FLORENCE VERY NEAR BERMUDA IN ABOUT 96 HOURS.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      07/2100Z 20.6N  54.9W    45 KT
 12HR VT     08/0600Z 21.5N  56.6W    50 KT
 24HR VT     08/1800Z 22.8N  59.0W    55 KT
 36HR VT     09/0600Z 24.0N  61.3W    65 KT
 48HR VT     09/1800Z 25.2N  63.3W    75 KT
 72HR VT     10/1800Z 28.1N  65.7W    90 KT
 96HR VT     11/1800Z 32.0N  66.0W    95 KT...NEAR BERMUDA
120HR VT     12/1800Z 38.0N  63.5W    90 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:37 UTC