Tropical Depression SIX

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062006
500 AM EDT TUE SEP 05 2006
 
WHILE THERE HAS BEEN SOME INCREASE IN CONVECTION OVERNIGHT...THE
OVERALL ORGANIZATION REMAINS POOR.  THE DEPRESSION CONSISTS OF A
LARGE CIRCULATION WITH CONVECTION PRIMARILY FOCUSED NEAR THE OUTER
PERIPHERY. ACCORDINGLY...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN AT 30
KT. THE DEPRESSION IS STILL FIGHTING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR ASSOCIATED
WITH AN UNUSUALLY HIGH-AMPLITUDE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.
GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THE TROUGH...AND ASSOCIATED VERTICAL
SHEAR...WILL PERSIST FOR ANOTHER 2 DAYS.  GIVEN THIS AND THE
PRESENT LACK OF ORGANIZATION...SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING IS NOT
ANTICIPATED IN THE SHORT-TERM.  BEYOND 48 HOURS...GLOBAL MODELS
FORECAST THE UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH TO FRACTURE FORMING AN UPPER
LOW TO THE WEST OF THE CYCLONE.  THIS PATTERN...IF VERIFIED...WOULD
RESULT IN A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR STRENGTHENING. 
HOWEVER...THE DEPRESSION HAS A TOUGH ROAD IN THE INTERIM...AND WILL
NEED TO SURVIVE THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS TO REACH THIS IMPROVED
ENVIRONMENT.  THIS COMPLEX EVOLUTION MEANS GREATER THAN USUAL
UNCERTAINTY...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS AT THE LOWER END OF THE
AVAILABLE GUIDANCE. 
 
LOCATING THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION IS A DIFFICULT TASK. SATELLITE
IMAGERY SUGGEST THAT THERE ARE SEVERAL SMALLER SCALE TRANSIENT
CENTERS EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGER CIRCULATION. THE ADVISORY POSITION
IS BASED ON THE MEAN CENTER OF THE LARGE CIRCULATION YIELDING AN
INITIAL MOTION OF 300/11.  THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS AS THE CYCLONE MOVES INTO A
WEAKNESS IN THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  THEREAFTER...A
MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC IS FORECAST TO
SHIFT EASTWARD TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE RESULTING IN SOME
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.  BY THE END OF THE FORECAST...THE
CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST AS IT REACHES THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE ANTICYCLONE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
CLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS...AND THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      05/0900Z 17.7N  45.9W    30 KT
 12HR VT     05/1800Z 18.4N  47.3W    30 KT
 24HR VT     06/0600Z 19.2N  49.0W    35 KT
 36HR VT     06/1800Z 19.9N  50.9W    40 KT
 48HR VT     07/0600Z 20.5N  53.1W    45 KT
 72HR VT     08/0600Z 22.0N  58.0W    60 KT
 96HR VT     09/0600Z 23.5N  62.5W    70 KT
120HR VT     10/0600Z 25.5N  66.0W    80 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER RHOME/AVILA
 
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