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Tropical Storm DEBBY


ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM DEBBY DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL042006
1100 AM EDT FRI AUG 25 2006
 
VISIBLE AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY DEPICT THAT DEBBY CONTINUES TO
STRUGGLE WITHIN THE MODERATE SOUTHERLY SHEAR...WHICH IS DISPLACING
THE CIRCULATION WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE RATHER LIMITED DEEP
CONVECTION.  DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE DOWN TO 25
AND 35 KT...A CIRA AMSU-A INTENSITY ESTIMATE CHIMED IN AT 37
KT...AND THIS MORNING'S 0822Z QUIKSCAT OVERPASS REVEALED A FEW 40
KT VECTORS.  AS A COMPROMISE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO
35 KT.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS WEIGHED HEAVILY ON THE
SHIPS...WHICH SUGGESTS LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT 2
TO 3 DAYS...THEN A GRADUAL INCREASE AS DEBBY INTERACTS WITH THE
APPROACHING BAROCLINIC SYSTEM.
 
INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 310/15.  LARGE SCALE MODELS SUGGEST
TWO POSSIBLE SOLUTIONS ONCE DEBBY MOVES BENEATH THE WESTERLIES. 
THE UKMET AND THE GFS INDICATE ABSORPTION BY A LARGER NON-TROPICAL
LOW APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST BY DAY 3 AND 4
RESPECTIVELY...WHILE THE OTHER AVAILABLE DYNAMICAL MODELS INDICATE
AN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE
GUNA CONSENSUS AND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST THROUGH 72 HOURS.  BEYOND
DAY 3...THE FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS
PACKAGE AND EMPHASIZES THE MODELS SUGGESTING AN EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      25/1500Z 23.9N  43.3W    35 KT
 12HR VT     26/0000Z 25.3N  45.3W    35 KT
 24HR VT     26/1200Z 27.2N  47.6W    35 KT
 36HR VT     27/0000Z 29.2N  49.1W    40 KT
 48HR VT     27/1200Z 31.2N  49.6W    45 KT
 72HR VT     28/1200Z 36.0N  47.0W    50 KT
 96HR VT     29/1200Z 42.0N  42.0W    50 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT     30/1200Z 48.0N  34.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:35 UTC