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Tropical Storm DEBBY


ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM DEBBY DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL042006
1100 AM EDT THU AUG 24 2006
 
THE INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS BASED ON 45 KT VECTORS IN RECENT
QUIKSCAT DATA...ALTHOUGH THE SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES ARE NO
HIGHER THAN 35 KT. DEEP CONVECTION IS LIMITED AT THIS TIME BUT
BANDING FEATURES ARE WELL DEFINED AND THE OUTFLOW PATTERN REMAINS
STRONG. A GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS ANTICIPATED AS DEBBY MOVES OVER
WARMER WATERS DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  HOWEVER...GLOBAL MODELS
SUGGEST THAT SOUTHERLY SHEAR WILL INCREASE AS WELL.  THE INTENSITY
GUIDANCE KEEPS DIVERGING. THE SHIPS MODEL HAS BEEN TRENDING LOWER
WITH SUCCESSIVE RUNS...BUT THE GFDL MODEL STILL FORECASTS A
CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE. I SUSPECT THE GFDL IS UNDERPLAYING THE IMPACT
OF THE SHEAR.

THERE IS NO APPRECIABLE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST THINKING OR TRACK
FORECAST. THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 300/17. THIS GENERAL TRACK
SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS DEBBY MOVES AROUND
THE PERIPHERY OF MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AZORES. ALL
GUIDANCE AGREES ON A RECURVATURE TRACK...ALBEIT AT DIFFERENT
RATES...IN FRONT OF A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IN THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS CLOSE TO THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK AS WELL AS THE GUNA AND FSU CONSENSUS
MODELS.

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      24/1500Z 20.4N  37.8W    45 KT
 12HR VT     25/0000Z 21.4N  40.2W    45 KT
 24HR VT     25/1200Z 22.6N  43.0W    50 KT
 36HR VT     26/0000Z 23.8N  45.5W    55 KT
 48HR VT     26/1200Z 25.4N  48.0W    60 KT
 72HR VT     27/1200Z 28.5N  50.5W    65 KT
 96HR VT     28/1200Z 31.5N  50.5W    65 KT
120HR VT     29/1200Z 36.0N  48.0W    65 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:35 UTC