Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Cent
er on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Tropical Storm CHRIS


ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM CHRIS DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL032006
500 AM EDT THU AUG 03 2006
 
CHRIS IS BECOMING DISORGANIZED IN A HURRY. SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE
THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS BECOME DETACHED FROM THE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY DUE TO NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR...AND THIS WAS CONFIRMED BY
FIXES FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE. THE MINIMUM PRESSURE
HAS RISEN TO 1010 MB AND THE MAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL WIND REPORTED SO
FAR IS ONLY 38 KNOTS. HOWEVER...ASSUMING THAT THE ENTIRE
CIRCULATION HAS NOT BEEN SAMPLED...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
ADJUSTED TO 40 KNOTS... AND THIS IS VERY GENEROUS.  I WAS TEMPTED
TO FORECAST WEAKENING AND EVEN DISSIPATION OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...BUT THE BEST OPTION AT THIS TIME IS TO KEEP THE CYCLONE ON A
STEADY STATE CONSIDERING THAT THE SHEAR COULD DECREASE...AS
SUGGESTED BY THE SHIPS MODEL.
 
THE BROAD CIRCULATION CENTER OF CHRIS APPEARS TO BE MOVING TOWARD
THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 KNOTS. ACCORDING TO ALL GLOBAL
MODELS...A STRONG RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ANCHORED TO THE NORTH
OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. THEREFORE...CHRIS...OR WHATEVER IS LEFT OF
THE SYSTEM...IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE WESTWARD ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...VERY NEAR THE NORTH COAST OF CUBA AND
EVENTUALLY REACH THE SOUTH-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO IN FIVE DAYS. THE
DILEMMA IS THE FUTURE INTENSITY OF THE CYCLONE. IT COULD WEAKEN
FURTHER AND DISSIPATE OR COULD REGAIN SOME STRENGTH. I AM IN FAVOR
OF WEAKENING.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      03/0900Z 20.3N  66.4W    40 KT
 12HR VT     03/1800Z 20.5N  68.0W    35 KT
 24HR VT     04/0600Z 20.8N  70.0W    35 KT
 36HR VT     04/1800Z 21.2N  72.0W    35 KT
 48HR VT     05/0600Z 21.5N  74.0W    35 KT
 72HR VT     06/0600Z 22.5N  79.0W    35 KT
 96HR VT     07/0600Z 23.0N  84.0W    35 KT
120HR VT     08/0600Z 23.5N  89.0W    35 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
 
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:35 UTC