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Tropical Storm CHRIS


ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM CHRIS DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL032006
1100 AM EDT WED AUG 02 2006
 
DATA FROM THE SAN JUAN WSR-88D DOPPLER RADAR AND HIGH-RESOLUTION
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGEST THAT CHRIS IS GRADUALLY BECOMING
BETTER ORGANIZED AS IT CONTINUES TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9
KT.  INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 55 KT IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE LAST
RECON-MEASURED FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 67 KT AND DVORAK T-NUMBERS OF
3.5 FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB.  CIRRUS MOTIONS INDICATE THAT CHRIS
CONTINUES TO BE EXPERIENCING SOME NORTHERLY SHEAR.  ON THE
PREDICTED TRACK...AND BASED ON THE 200 MB WIND FORECAST FROM THE
GFS...CHRIS WILL BE IN A COL REGION BETWEEN TWO UPPER-LEVEL
CYCLONES DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  THIS IS A REASONABLY FAVORABLE
UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT...SO A GRADUAL INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS
FORECAST.  THE NHC WIND SPEED FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE LATEST
SHIPS GUIDANCE AND A LITTLE ABOVE THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE PREDICTION.
AS ALWAYS...IT SHOULD BE RECALLED THAT TROPICAL CYCLONE INTENSITY
FORECASTS AT 3-5 DAYS HAVE LITTLE SKILL.
 
LATEST CENTER FIXES SUGGEST LITTLE CHANGE IN THE INITIAL HEADING OR
SPEED.  GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THE MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEAR
THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS WILL MOVE WESTWARD AND SLOWLY WEAKEN OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS...WHILE A RATHER STRONG MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE BUILDS
TO THE NORTH OF CHRIS.  THIS KIND OF FLOW PATTERN WOULD STEER THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE ON A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK.  HOWEVER AN
EVEN STRONGER RIDGE WOULD LIKELY DRIVE CHRIS WESTWARD.  INDEED...
THIS IS THE SCENARIO OFFERED BY THE GFDL MODEL WHICH EVEN TURNS THE
SYSTEM WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD FOR A WHILE.  WHEREAS THE GFDL IS A
HIGHLY CREDIBLE MODEL...THE MOST PRUDENT COURSE AT THIS TIME IS TO
USE THE CONSENSUS OF ALL OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS.  THIS IS ALSO
VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS NHC TRACK.
 
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      02/1500Z 19.2N  63.4W    55 KT
 12HR VT     03/0000Z 19.8N  64.8W    60 KT
 24HR VT     03/1200Z 20.3N  66.4W    65 KT
 36HR VT     04/0000Z 20.8N  68.0W    65 KT
 48HR VT     04/1200Z 21.4N  70.1W    70 KT
 72HR VT     05/1200Z 22.5N  74.5W    70 KT
 96HR VT     06/1200Z 23.5N  79.0W    70 KT
120HR VT     07/1200Z 24.5N  83.5W    70 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:34 UTC