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Tropical Storm ALBERTO


ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL012006
1100 AM EDT MON JUN 12 2006

THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE FOUND THAT THE CENTER OF THE
CYCLONE HAS ABRUPTLY REFORMED NEAR THE DEEP CONVECTION...AND IT IS
NOW RELOCATED SOME 60 N MI TO THE NORTHEAST OF ITS PREVIOUSLY
ESTIMATED POSITION.  THE HURRICANE HUNTERS ALSO REPORTED A PEAK
2500-FT FLIGHT LEVEL WIND OF 74 KT...AND A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 997
MB.  BASED ON THIS OBSERVATION THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ADJUSTED TO
60 KT.  THE STORM HAS BEEN INTERACTING WITH THE WARM GULF OF MEXICO
LOOP CURRENT...WHICH HAS LIKELY BEEN A CONTRIBUTOR TO THE
INTENSIFICATION.  AS ALBERTO CONTINUES NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD IT WILL
BE DEPARTING THE LOOP CURRENT AND ENCOUNTERING A REGION OF LOWER
OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT.  STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR WILL ALSO
CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE.  THESE ENVIRONMENTAL
FACTORS WOULD APPEAR TO MITIGATE AGAINST SIGNIFICANT ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING.  NONETHELESS....GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES IN
PREDICTING INTENSITY CHANGE WE MUST NOW ALLOW FOR THE DISTINCT
POSSIBILITY THAT ALBERTO COULD BECOME A HURRICANE.  THEREFORE A
HURRICANE WARNING IS NECESSARY FOR A PORTION OF THE NORTHEAST GULF
COAST.

A MID-LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN U.S. IS EXPECTED TO
CARRY THE TROPICAL CYCLONE ON A NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TO
NORTHEASTWARD HEADING.  THE GFDL AND NOGAPS GUIDANCE SHOW A MORE
NORTHWARD TRACK...BUT THIS IS DIFFICULT TO ACCEPT GIVEN THE
NORTHEASTWARD REFORMATION OF THE CENTER.  THEREFORE ONLY A SLIGHT
LEFTWARD ADJUSTMENT HAS BEEN MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK.

ALONG WITH THE HEAVY RAINFALL...THE GREATEST CONCERN WITH ALBERTO IS
LIKELY TO BE STORM SURGE FLOODING ALONG AN EXTENSIVE PORTION OF THE
FLORIDA GULF COAST.  OWING TO THE CONFIGURATION OF THE COASTLINE
AND THE SHALLOW CONTINENTAL SHELF...A STRONG TROPICAL STORM OR A
CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE CAN PRODUCE A SIGNIFICANT SURGE IN THIS
AREA.

 
FORECASTER PASCH
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      12/1500Z 27.1N  85.9W    60 KT
 12HR VT     13/0000Z 27.6N  85.5W    65 KT
 24HR VT     13/1200Z 28.8N  84.6W    65 KT
 36HR VT     14/0000Z 30.0N  83.6W    60 KT...INLAND
 48HR VT     14/1200Z 32.0N  82.0W    30 KT...INLAND
 72HR VT     15/1200Z 34.5N  77.5W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 96HR VT     16/1200Z 38.0N  70.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT     17/1200Z 45.0N  60.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 
 
$$
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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:33 UTC