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Hurricane EMILY


ZCZC MIATCPAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
HURRICANE EMILY ADVISORY NUMBER  27
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT SUN JUL 17 2005

...CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE EMILY MOVING AWAY FROM THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS...NEW HURRICANE WARNING FOR MEXICO...
 
AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE
HURRICANE WARNING WESTWARD ALONG THE COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
TO CAMPECHE.  A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA FROM CHETUMAL NORTHWARD TO CABO CATOCHE...THEN WESTWARD
AND SOUTHWARD TO CAMPECHE...INCLUDING COZUMEL AND THE ISLAS
MUJERES.  A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF BELIZE FROM
BELIZE CITY NORTHWARD TO THE BELIZE-MEXICO BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN
THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
 
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF EXTREME
WESTERN CUBA.
 
AT 11 AM EDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS HAS CANCELLED
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR GRAND CAYMAN ISLAND.
 
INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF EMILY.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
 
AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EMILY WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 18.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE  83.6 WEST OR ABOUT  165
MILES... 265 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF GRAND CAYMAN AND ABOUT  250
MILES... 405 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF COZUMEL MEXICO.
 
EMILY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 20 MPH...32 KM/HR...
AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  ON
THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF EMILY IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
 
REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 150 MPH...240 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  THIS MAKES EMILY A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.  FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE COMMON IN
MAJOR HURRICANES...BUT LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS
EXPECTED BEFORE EMILY MAKES LANDFALL.  WEAKENING IS THEN EXPECTED
AS THE CENTER OF EMILY CROSSES THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.
 
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO  60 MILES... 95 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 150 MILES...240 KM.
 
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTER
IS  946 MB...27.94 INCHES.
 
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 8-12 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL
IN MEXICO.  ABOVE NORMAL TIDES...ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS
WAVES...ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTH COASTS OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.
 
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS UP TO 12 INCHES. 
LESSER AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER WESTERN CUBA. 
WHILE SOME OUTER RAIN BANDS MAY CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS...IN GENERAL RAINFALL SHOULD DECREASE ACROSS THOSE ISLANDS
TODAY.
 
REPEATING THE 11 AM EDT POSITION...18.6 N... 83.6 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 20 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...150 MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 946 MB.
 
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 PM EDT.
 
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
 
$$
NNNN


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Page last modified: Sunday, 17-Jul-2005 14:40:02 UTC