Hurricane OTIS

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HURRICANE OTIS DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT FRI SEP 30 2005
 
AFTER LOOKING A LITTLE RAGGED AT ABOUT 00Z...OTIS HAS BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS WITH THE EYE CLEARING OUT AND THE
EYEWALL CLOUD TOPS COOLING.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 90
KT FROM SAB...AND 77 KT FROM TAFB AND AFWA.  BASED ON THE RECENTLY
IMPROVED SATELLITE SIGNATURE...THE INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 80 KT.

THE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND DATA FROM THE MEXICAN RADAR AT LOS CABOS
INDICATES THE INITIAL MOTION IS 315/4...AND THE SHORT-TERM MOTION
MAY BE SLOWER THAN THAT.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A MID/
UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEAR 32N122W WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING TO NEAR
23N124W.  DOWNSTREAM OF THIS IS A MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE ALONG
115W...AND THIS RIDGE IS LIKELY RESPONSIBLE FOR SOMEWHAT BLOCKING
THE FORWARD MOTION OF OTIS DURING THE EVENING.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
ALSO SHOWS BROAD DEEP-LAYER TROUGHING DEVELOPING OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC.  THIS...COMBINED WITH THE LOW FARTHER TO THE
SOUTH...SHOUDL CAUSE OTIS TO TURN NORTHWARD DURING THE NEXT 36-48
HR...THEN GRADUALLY RECURVE TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST.  ALL
GUIDANCE SAVE THE ECMWF NOW AGREES WITH THIS SCENARIO...ALTHOUGH
THE UKMET CALLS FOR A FASTER AND MORE EASTWARD MOTION THAN THE
OTHER MODELS.  THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO TURN OTIS MORE WESTWARD AWAY
FROM BAJA CALIFORNIA...WHICH LOOKS UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME.  THE NEW
FORECAST TRACK IS A LITTLE TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK
BETWEEN 24-96 HR...CALLING FOR OTIS TO MAKE LANDFALL IN CENTRAL
BAJA CALIFORNIA IN ABOUT 48 HR...AND MAKE LANDFALL IN NORTHWESTERN
MAINLAND MEXICO IN A LITTLE OVER 72 HR.  THE NEW TRACK IS JUST TO
THE LEFT AND A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE CONSENSUS MODELS GUNS AND
GUNA.
 
OTIS IS STARTING TO MOVE INTO GRADUALLY COOLER SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES...ALTHOUGH THE TEMPERATURES ARE STILL WARM ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT A HURRICANE STRONGER THAN OTIS IS NOW.  BASED ON THIS...THE
GOOD EYE STRUCTURE...AND LIGHT VERTICAL SHEAR...THE INTENSITY
FORECAST CALLS FOR OTIS TO REACH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 90 KT IN ABOUT
24 HR.  WHILE THE TIMING OF THE PEAK IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
GUIDANCE...90 KT IS STRONGER THAN THE GFDL...SHIPS...AND THE FSU
SUPERENSEMBLE.  THUS...OTIS MAY NOT STRENGTHEN AS MUCH AS CURRENTLY
FORECAST.  AFTER 24 HR...COOLER SSTS AND INCREASING LAND
INTERACTION WILL CAUSE WEAKENING.  WHILE A 120 HR POINT IS INCLUDED
IN THE FORECAST...THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THE SURFACE CENTER OF OTIS
COULD DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING THE UNITED STATES...ALTHOUGH A
MID/UPPER-LEVEL CENTER SHOULD STILL EXIST.
 
THE FORECAST TRACK AND WIND RADII KEEP THE STRONGER WINDS OFFSHORE
FOR 24 HR OR MORE.  HOWEVER...ANY DEVIATION TO THE RIGHT COULD
BRING STRONGER WINDS TO THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF BAJA CALIFORNIA ON
SATURDAY.  HURRICANE WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS
OF BAJA CALIFORNIA ON THE NEXT ADVISORY.
 
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      01/0300Z 21.7N 111.4W    80 KT
 12HR VT     01/1200Z 22.4N 111.9W    85 KT
 24HR VT     02/0000Z 23.3N 112.2W    90 KT
 36HR VT     02/1200Z 24.7N 112.5W    80 KT
 48HR VT     03/0000Z 26.3N 112.7W    70 KT
 72HR VT     04/0000Z 29.0N 112.5W    45 KT
 96HR VT     05/0000Z 32.0N 112.0W    25 KT...INLAND
120HR VT     06/0000Z 35.5N 110.5W    20 KT...INLAND DISSIPATING
 
 
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