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Hurricane OTIS


ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE OTIS DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT FRI SEP 30 2005
 
THE EYE HAS BECOME MUCH BETTER DEFINED IN BOTH VISIBLE AND INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY... AND ALSO IN RADAR DATA FROM CABO SAN LUCAS
MEXICO. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 75 KT IS BASED ON A BLEND OF
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 77 KT FROM TAFB... 90 KT FROM
SAB... 77 KT FROM AFWA... AND A 30/1059Z UW-CIMSS AMSU INTENSITY
ESTIMATE OF 975 MB AND 80 KT. THE MOST RECENT RAW ODT VALUES HAVE
INCREASED SHARPLY TO T5.4/99 KT.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 320/07. NOT TO SOUND LIKE A BROKEN
RECORD... BUT THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK AND REASONING REMAINS
UNCHANGED FROM PREVIOUS ADVISORIES. HOWEVER... THE 12Z MODELS...
INCLUDING THE GFDL AND CANADIAN MODELS... ARE NOW SIMILAR TO THE 
PREVIOUS OFFICIAL TRACK FORECASTS... AND THE CURRENT AND PREVIOUS
GFS... NOGAPS...AND UKMET MODEL RUNS IN RECURVING OTIS SLOWLY NORTH
ACROSS CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA IN 48-72 HOURS... AND THEN 
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS EXTREME NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. THE MAIN DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS
LIE MAINLY WITH THE FORECAST MOTION. THE UKMET IS FASTER AND MORE
TO THE RIGHT... WHEREAS THE GFDL AND GFDN MODELS ARE SLOWER AND ON
THE LEFT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. THE OTHER MODELS ARE
SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN THOSE TWO EXTREMES. SINCE THE GFS AND NOGAPS
MODELS HAVE BEEN HANDLING BETTER THE EVOLUTION OF THE DIGGING LOW
OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST... MORE WEIGHT HAS BEEN PLACED ON THOSE
TWO SOLUTIONS. ALTHOUGH OTIS WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER
MAKING LANDFALL OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO... A 120-HOUR POSITION WAS
INCLUDED FOR CONTINUITY PURPOSES BASED ON THE EXPECTED LOCATION OF
THE DECOUPLED MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER.
 
ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS SINCE
OTIS WILL BE OVER OVER 28C OR WARMER SSTS... AND THE VERTICAL SHEAR
IS FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 2 KT TO 7 KT. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
HIGHER THAN THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL... WHICH ONLY BRINGS OTIS UP
TO 80 KT IN 12 HOURS... BUT MUCH HIGHER THAN THE GFDL MODEL...
WHICH WEAKENS OTIS IMMEDIATELY AND DOWN TO 66 KT IN 24 HOURS. ONE
DISTURBING PIECE OF INTENSITY INFORMATION IS THE HIGH ODT VALUE.
THERE IS AT LEAST A MODERATE PROBABILITY THAT OTIS COULD REACH
CATEGORY 3 STATUS IN THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS BEFORE THE INTENSITY
LEVELS OFF OR DECREASES AS THE CYCLONE MOVES CLOSER TO 26C SSTS.
 
THE FORECAST TRACK AND WIND RADII KEEP THE STRONGER WINDS OFFSHORE.
HOWEVER...ANY DEVIATION TO THE RIGHT COULD BRING STRONGER WINDS TO
THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF BAJA CALIFORNIA LATER TODAY OR SATURDAY.
12-FT SEAS WERE INCREASED BASED ON 18Z SHIP OBSERVATIONS.
 
FORECASTER STEWART
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      30/2100Z 21.6N 111.2W    75 KT
 12HR VT     01/0600Z 22.3N 111.7W    85 KT
 24HR VT     01/1800Z 23.3N 112.2W    90 KT
 36HR VT     02/0600Z 24.4N 112.4W    80 KT
 48HR VT     02/1800Z 26.2N 113.0W    70 KT...NEAR WEST-CENTRAL BAJA
 72HR VT     03/1800Z 28.7N 112.9W    45 KT...NRN GULF OF CALIFORNIA
 96HR VT     04/1800Z 32.0N 112.0W    25 KT...INLAND NWRN MEXICO
120HR VT     05/1800Z 35.5N 110.0W    20 KT...INLAND ERN ARIZONA
 
$$
NNNN


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Page last modified: Friday, 30-Sep-2005 20:10:23 UTC