ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER 46 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 PM PDT SUN SEP 25 2005 GOES-10 VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS A BUILD-UP OF CONVECTION IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT WHILE THE WESTERN SIDE OF KENNETH REMAINS FAIRLY DEVOID OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. CURRENT DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM BOTH SAB AND TAFB AGREE THAT KENNETH REMAINS A HURRICANE. ALSO...THE UW-CIMSS ADVANCED OBJECTIVE DVORAK TECHNIQUE ESTIMATES AN ADJUSTED DATA-T OF 4.1 OR 65 KTS. BASED ON THIS INFORMATION...KENNETH REMAINS A 65 KT CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR KENNETH TO REMAIN A HURRICANE FOR THE NEXT 12 HRS. THEN...THE SYSTEM SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO A STABLE MARINE ENVIRONMENT AND AS THE SHEAR INCREASES BEYOND 48 HRS. FINALLY...KENNETH IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AS STRONG SHEAR IMPACTS THE SYSTEM IN THE LATER PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE LATEST SHIPS GUIDANCE. THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 240/3 AS KENNETH IS SET TO CROSS INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC BASIN BOUNDARY THAT STARTS AT 140W. HOWEVER... VERY RECENTLY THE HURRICANE APPEARS TO BE DRIFTING MORE TOWARD THE SOUTH. THE TRACK GUIDANCE AGREES THAT KENNETH WILL BEGIN MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD OR JUST SOUTH OF WEST WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HRS. THE DOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM IS AN ANTICYCLONE NEAR THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS AND A TROUGH LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM...THIS WILL MOVE KENNETH IN A GENERAL SOUTHWESTWARD DIRECTION. BEYOND 48 HRS... MID TO UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW WILL ACCELERATE KENNETH ON A MORE NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THIS SCENARIO AS DO THE CONSENSUS MODELS...CONU AND GUNA... AS WELL AS THE UKMET AND NOGAPS DYNAMICAL MODELS. NOTE...IF KENNETH MOVES WEST OF 140W BY 06Z...THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER IN HONOLULU. FORECASTER SISKO/KNABB FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 26/0300Z 15.6N 140.0W 65 KT 12HR VT 26/1200Z 15.4N 140.6W 65 KT 24HR VT 27/0000Z 15.4N 141.4W 60 KT 36HR VT 27/1200Z 15.8N 142.4W 60 KT 48HR VT 28/0000Z 16.4N 143.6W 55 KT 72HR VT 29/0000Z 17.9N 146.1W 45 KT 96HR VT 30/0000Z 19.5N 148.5W 35 KT 120HR VT 01/0000Z 21.0N 151.5W 30 KT $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 26-Sep-2005 02:55:24 UTC