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Hurricane KENNETH


ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER  46
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT SUN SEP 25 2005
 
GOES-10 VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS A BUILD-UP OF CONVECTION IN THE
NORTHEAST QUADRANT WHILE THE WESTERN SIDE OF KENNETH REMAINS FAIRLY
DEVOID OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. CURRENT DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM BOTH
SAB AND TAFB AGREE THAT KENNETH REMAINS A HURRICANE. ALSO...THE
UW-CIMSS ADVANCED OBJECTIVE DVORAK TECHNIQUE ESTIMATES AN ADJUSTED
DATA-T OF 4.1 OR 65 KTS. BASED ON THIS INFORMATION...KENNETH
REMAINS A 65 KT CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE.

THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR KENNETH TO REMAIN A
HURRICANE FOR THE NEXT 12 HRS. THEN...THE SYSTEM SHOULD WEAKEN AS
IT MOVES INTO A STABLE MARINE ENVIRONMENT AND AS THE SHEAR
INCREASES BEYOND 48 HRS. FINALLY...KENNETH IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AS STRONG SHEAR IMPACTS THE SYSTEM IN
THE LATER PERIOD.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS
THE LATEST SHIPS GUIDANCE.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 240/3 AS KENNETH IS SET TO CROSS
INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC BASIN BOUNDARY THAT STARTS AT 140W.
HOWEVER... VERY RECENTLY THE HURRICANE APPEARS TO BE DRIFTING MORE
TOWARD THE SOUTH.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE AGREES THAT KENNETH WILL
BEGIN MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD OR JUST SOUTH OF WEST WITHIN THE NEXT
48 HRS. THE DOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM IS AN ANTICYCLONE NEAR THE
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS AND A TROUGH LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
SYSTEM...THIS WILL MOVE KENNETH IN A GENERAL SOUTHWESTWARD
DIRECTION. BEYOND 48 HRS... MID TO UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW WILL
ACCELERATE KENNETH ON A MORE NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. THE OFFICIAL
TRACK FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THIS SCENARIO AS DO THE CONSENSUS
MODELS...CONU AND GUNA... AS WELL AS THE UKMET AND NOGAPS DYNAMICAL
MODELS.

NOTE...IF KENNETH MOVES WEST OF 140W BY 06Z...THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL
BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER IN HONOLULU.
 
FORECASTER SISKO/KNABB
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      26/0300Z 15.6N 140.0W    65 KT
 12HR VT     26/1200Z 15.4N 140.6W    65 KT
 24HR VT     27/0000Z 15.4N 141.4W    60 KT
 36HR VT     27/1200Z 15.8N 142.4W    60 KT
 48HR VT     28/0000Z 16.4N 143.6W    55 KT
 72HR VT     29/0000Z 17.9N 146.1W    45 KT
 96HR VT     30/0000Z 19.5N 148.5W    35 KT
120HR VT     01/0000Z 21.0N 151.5W    30 KT
 
 
$$
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Page last modified: Monday, 26-Sep-2005 02:55:24 UTC