ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER 36 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 AM PDT FRI SEP 23 2005 A 1018Z TRMM MICROWAVE PASS REVEALED BOTH A LOW-LEVEL AND MID-LEVEL CENTER. WITH THE MID-LEVEL CENTER LOCATED TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE SURFACE CIRCULATION...KENNETH IS CLEARLY BEING AFFECTED BY NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR. ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE CYCLONE IS MAINTAINING DEEP CONVECTION... AND CURRENT DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL THREE AGENCIES REMAIN AT 55 KT...WHICH IS THE INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 275/2 KT. A WEAK RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF KENNETH IS BECOMING FURTHER ERODED AND CONSEQUENTLY THE STEERING FLOW IS ALMOST NON-EXISTENT. WITHOUT ANY DOMINANT MID-LEVEL STEERING...THE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS HIGHLY DIVERGENT WITH THE GFDL/GFS/NOGAPS MOVING KENNETH SLOWLY TO THE NORTH OR MOVING KENNETH AROUND IN A LOOP. THE UKMET REMAINS THE OUTLINER AND CONTINUES TO TRACK THE STORM QUICKLY TO THE WEST. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST MAINTAINS A VERY SLOW FORWARD SPEED OF 2-3 KT TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND IS SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...ESPECIALLY AT DAYS FOUR AND FIVE. THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A SLOW DECREASE IN INTENSITY OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS A MORE CONSERVATIVE APPROACH AND WILL MAINTAIN KENNETH AS A 55-KT TROPICAL STORM THROUGH 72 HOURS WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE AS WELL AS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. FORECASTER MAINELLI/PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 23/1500Z 16.1N 137.0W 55 KT 12HR VT 24/0000Z 16.2N 137.6W 55 KT 24HR VT 24/1200Z 16.3N 138.2W 55 KT 36HR VT 25/0000Z 16.4N 138.6W 55 KT 48HR VT 25/1200Z 16.5N 139.0W 55 KT 72HR VT 26/1200Z 16.5N 139.5W 55 KT 96HR VT 27/1200Z 16.5N 140.0W 50 KT 120HR VT 28/1200Z 16.5N 140.5W 45 KT $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Friday, 23-Sep-2005 14:40:22 UTC