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Hurricane KENNETH


ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER  36
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT FRI SEP 23 2005

A 1018Z TRMM MICROWAVE PASS REVEALED BOTH A LOW-LEVEL AND MID-LEVEL
CENTER. WITH THE MID-LEVEL CENTER LOCATED TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF
THE SURFACE CIRCULATION...KENNETH IS CLEARLY BEING AFFECTED BY
NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR. ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE
CYCLONE IS MAINTAINING DEEP CONVECTION... AND CURRENT DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL THREE AGENCIES REMAIN AT 55 KT...WHICH
IS THE INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 275/2 KT. A WEAK RIDGE TO THE
NORTH OF KENNETH IS BECOMING FURTHER ERODED AND CONSEQUENTLY THE
STEERING FLOW IS ALMOST NON-EXISTENT. WITHOUT ANY DOMINANT MID-LEVEL
STEERING...THE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS HIGHLY DIVERGENT WITH THE
GFDL/GFS/NOGAPS MOVING KENNETH SLOWLY TO THE NORTH OR MOVING
KENNETH AROUND IN A LOOP. THE UKMET REMAINS THE OUTLINER AND
CONTINUES TO TRACK THE STORM QUICKLY TO THE WEST. THE OFFICIAL
TRACK FORECAST MAINTAINS A VERY SLOW FORWARD SPEED OF 2-3 KT TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST AND IS SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...ESPECIALLY
AT DAYS FOUR AND FIVE. 
 
THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A SLOW DECREASE IN
INTENSITY OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST FOLLOWS A MORE CONSERVATIVE APPROACH AND WILL MAINTAIN
KENNETH AS A 55-KT TROPICAL STORM THROUGH 72 HOURS WHICH IS
CONSISTENT WITH THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE AS WELL AS THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST.
 
FORECASTER MAINELLI/PASCH
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      23/1500Z 16.1N 137.0W    55 KT
 12HR VT     24/0000Z 16.2N 137.6W    55 KT
 24HR VT     24/1200Z 16.3N 138.2W    55 KT
 36HR VT     25/0000Z 16.4N 138.6W    55 KT
 48HR VT     25/1200Z 16.5N 139.0W    55 KT
 72HR VT     26/1200Z 16.5N 139.5W    55 KT
 96HR VT     27/1200Z 16.5N 140.0W    50 KT
120HR VT     28/1200Z 16.5N 140.5W    45 KT
 
 
$$
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Page last modified: Friday, 23-Sep-2005 14:40:22 UTC