Hurricane KENNETH

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HURRICANE KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER  22
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT MON SEP 19 2005

VISIBLE AND ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY DEPICT DISORGANIZATION OF THE
OUTER BANDS AND WARMING CLOUD TOPS THIS EVENING...PARTICULARLY OVER
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE SYSTEM. A 2038Z TRMM OVERPASS CLEARLY
CONFIRMED THAT THE DEEP CONVECTION IS NOW CONFINED TO THE SOUTH
SEMI-CIRCLE. IT APPEARS...IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...THAT AN UPPER
ANTICYCLONE HAS DEVELOPED EAST OF HURRICANE JOVA...AND IS PROVIDING
NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR OVER KENNETH'S PATH. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES
ARE 77 KT FROM AFWA...AND 90 KT FROM SAB AND TAFB. DATA-T NUMBERS
HAVE DROPPED TO 65 KT FROM ALL AGENCIES. AS A COMPROMISE...THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 80 KT. THE SHIPS SUGGESTS THAT THE
NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 36 HOURS. THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...MODERATE EAST-SOUTHEASTERLIES AND COOLER
WATERS SHOULD WEAKEN THE SYSTEM TO DEPRESSION STRENGTH BY DAY 5.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THE SHIPS AND IS ALSO SIMILAR TO THE
FSU SUPERENSEMBLE.

AFTER AN 18 HOUR PERIOD OF MEANDERING WITHIN A BREAK IN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...KENNETH HAS BEGUN TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
AROUND 3 KT.  THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS NOW EMBEDDED IN THE MID-
LEVEL STEERING FLOW PROVIDED BY A DEVELOPING MID-LEVEL HIGH
SITUATED TO THE NORTHWEST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR A SLOW
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOVEMENT OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS. THEN...A
GRADUAL TURN TO THE WEST IS EXPECTED AS A MID-LAYER RIDGE BUILDS
WESTWARD FROM NORTHERN MEXICO. THE FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS
OF THE NOGAPS...GFDN...UKMET AND THE GFS...AND IS VERY CLOSE TO THE
PREVIOUS PACKAGE.

FORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      20/0300Z 13.6N 130.9W    80 KT
 12HR VT     20/1200Z 13.7N 131.2W    70 KT
 24HR VT     21/0000Z 14.1N 131.9W    60 KT
 36HR VT     21/1200Z 14.7N 132.7W    50 KT
 48HR VT     22/0000Z 15.3N 133.5W    45 KT
 72HR VT     23/0000Z 17.2N 135.3W    40 KT
 96HR VT     24/0000Z 18.5N 137.5W    35 KT
120HR VT     25/0000Z 19.0N 140.0W    30 KT
 
 
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