Hurricane KENNETH

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HURRICANE KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT FRI SEP 16 2005

ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY AND A RECENT AMSU MICROWAVE OVERPASS
SUGGEST THAT KENNETH HAS UNDERGONE AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE. 
THE MOST RECENT INFRARED AND THE LAST FEW VISIBLE IMAGES DEPICT A
WELL DEFINED... BUT CLOUD-FILLED EYE...WITH INTENSE OUTER
RAINBANDS EXTENDING OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE SYSTEM.  THE
DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 77 KT TO 90 KT.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS INCREASED TO 80 KT.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED
FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE WHICH AGREES WITH THE COUPLED GFDL AND
THE SHIPS...CALLING FOR A GRADUAL WEAKENING AS THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
ENCOUNTERS COOLER WATERS.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/7. KENNETH IS SOUTHWEST OF A MID-LEVEL
RIDGE...AND SITUATED BETWEEN HURRICANE JOVA TO THE WEST AND A BROAD
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO THE EAST.  THE SYSTEM IS MOVING TOWARD A
DEVELOPING BREAK IN THE RIDGE NEAR 135W. THE FORECAST CALLS FOR A
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD WITH A GRADUAL
REDUCTION IN FORWARD SPEED AS THE TROPICAL CYCLONE MOVES AROUND THE
SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AND INTO THE WEAKNESS. THIS
SCENARIO FOLLOWS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND AGREES WITH
THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.

FORECASTER ROBERTS/STEWART
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      17/0300Z 13.3N 125.0W    80 KT
 12HR VT     17/1200Z 13.6N 126.0W    85 KT
 24HR VT     18/0000Z 14.0N 127.1W    85 KT
 36HR VT     18/1200Z 14.4N 128.2W    80 KT
 48HR VT     19/0000Z 14.7N 129.1W    75 KT
 72HR VT     20/0000Z 15.3N 130.8W    65 KT
 96HR VT     21/0000Z 16.0N 132.5W    60 KT
120HR VT     22/0000Z 16.5N 133.5W    55 KT
 
 
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