ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 AM PDT TUE SEP 13 2005 THERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF THE DEPRESSION. THE CENTER CONTINUES TO BE DIFFICULT TO LOCATE BUT IT APPEARS TO BE TO THE EAST OF THE WEAKENING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. T-NUMBERS REMAIN ABOUT 1.5 AND 2.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE SO INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 30 KNOTS. VISIBLE IMAGES LATER TODAY WILL LIKELY HELP US TO HAVE A BETTER ESTIMATE OF THE LOCATION AND THE INTENSITY. THE DEPRESSION IS LOCATED SOUTH OF A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WHICH IS FORCING THE CYCLONE ON A TRACK SOUTH OF DUE WEST. THIS PERSISTENT HIGH IS FORECAST TO CHANGE LITTLE SO THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT...AND MOST OF THE MODELS ARE TIGHTLY PACKED INDICATING A GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION. THE SOUTH OF DUE WEST MOTION WILL KEEP THE DEPRESSION OVER RELATIVELY WARMER WATERS AND THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK. THEREFORE...A GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED AND THE FORECAST FOLLOWS THE SHIPS MODEL CLOSELY. THE GFDL IS A LITTLE MORE AGGRESSIVE. HOWEVER...THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AND THE DEPRESSION COULD EASILY WEAKEN INSTEAD. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 13/1500Z 14.2N 121.2W 30 KT 12HR VT 14/0000Z 14.2N 122.5W 30 KT 24HR VT 14/1200Z 13.8N 124.0W 35 KT 36HR VT 15/0000Z 13.7N 126.0W 40 KT 48HR VT 15/1200Z 13.7N 128.0W 45 KT 72HR VT 16/1200Z 13.7N 133.0W 50 KT 96HR VT 17/1200Z 14.0N 137.0W 55 KT 120HR VT 18/1200Z 14.5N 141.0W 55 KT $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Tuesday, 13-Sep-2005 14:40:19 UTC