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Tropical Depression TEN-E


ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT TUE SEP 13 2005
 
THERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION
OF THE DEPRESSION. THE CENTER CONTINUES TO BE DIFFICULT TO LOCATE
BUT IT APPEARS TO BE TO THE EAST OF THE WEAKENING THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. T-NUMBERS REMAIN ABOUT 1.5 AND 2.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE SO
INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 30 KNOTS.  VISIBLE IMAGES LATER TODAY
WILL LIKELY HELP US TO HAVE A BETTER ESTIMATE OF THE LOCATION AND
THE INTENSITY.

THE DEPRESSION IS LOCATED SOUTH OF A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
WHICH IS FORCING THE CYCLONE ON A TRACK SOUTH OF DUE WEST. THIS
PERSISTENT HIGH IS FORECAST TO CHANGE LITTLE SO THIS GENERAL 
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. TRACK
GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT...AND MOST OF THE MODELS ARE
TIGHTLY PACKED INDICATING A GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION. 

THE SOUTH OF DUE WEST MOTION WILL KEEP THE DEPRESSION OVER
RELATIVELY WARMER WATERS AND THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK.
THEREFORE...A GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED AND THE FORECAST
FOLLOWS THE SHIPS MODEL CLOSELY. THE GFDL IS A LITTLE MORE
AGGRESSIVE. HOWEVER...THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN
AND THE DEPRESSION COULD EASILY WEAKEN INSTEAD.  

FORECASTER AVILA
  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      13/1500Z 14.2N 121.2W    30 KT
 12HR VT     14/0000Z 14.2N 122.5W    30 KT
 24HR VT     14/1200Z 13.8N 124.0W    35 KT
 36HR VT     15/0000Z 13.7N 126.0W    40 KT
 48HR VT     15/1200Z 13.7N 128.0W    45 KT
 72HR VT     16/1200Z 13.7N 133.0W    50 KT
 96HR VT     17/1200Z 14.0N 137.0W    55 KT
120HR VT     18/1200Z 14.5N 141.0W    55 KT
 
 
$$
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Page last modified: Tuesday, 13-Sep-2005 14:40:19 UTC