ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM HILARY DISCUSSION NUMBER 23 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 PM PDT WED AUG 24 2005 THE COLD WATER IS FINALLY TAKING ITS TOLL ON HILARY. THE DEEP CONVECTION IS DIMINISHING AND BEGINNING TO SEPARATE FROM THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 55 KT BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF THE DVORAK T AND CI NUMBERS. NOW THAT THE CYCLONE IS DECOUPLING FROM THE CONVECTION...A MORE RAPID WEAKENING TREND SHOULD BEGIN...AND DISSIPATION IS EXPECTED WITHIN ABOUT 36 HOURS. HILARY IS MOVING TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF 330/7. RECENT RUNS OF THE GFDL CAPTURED THIS MORE NORTHWARD MOTION BETTER THAN THE OTHER GUIDANCE AND I HAVE EDGED THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TOWARD THE GFDL SOLUTION FOR THIS ADVISORY. AS HILARY WEAKENS...ALL GUIDANCE INDICATES A GRADUAL TURN BACK TO THE WEST UNDERNEATH A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST OF HILARY. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 24/2100Z 22.2N 117.9W 55 KT 12HR VT 25/0600Z 22.9N 118.5W 45 KT 24HR VT 25/1800Z 23.9N 119.7W 35 KT 36HR VT 26/0600Z 24.8N 121.3W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 48HR VT 26/1800Z 25.4N 123.1W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 27/1800Z 26.0N 127.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 28/1800Z 26.0N 131.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 29/1800Z 26.0N 134.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Wednesday, 24-Aug-2005 20:40:13 UTC